Tropical Storm Bret Heading towards the Caribbean, Expected to Become a Hurricane

LAFAYETTE, La. (KLFY) -- AM UPDATE 6/20/2023: Tropical Storm Bret remains a weak tropical storm this morning with wind speeds at 40 mph as it continues due west in the central Atlantic. The latest National Hurricane Center Forecast Cone shows Bret moving into the Caribbean Sea this weekend. Bret could strengthen into a Category 1 Hurricane over the next couple of days but weakening is expected to happen in the 5 to 7 day period.

Overnight, tropical models have trended further south and west compared to yesterday's spaghetti plots. Bret has a high likelihood of reaching the Caribbean Sea but the environment should be more detrimental to a tropical system as weakening should occur. The forecast uncertainty is still high but Bret does not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico at this time. We are monitoring the system very closely for any changes.

There is a tropical wave on the heels of Tropical Storm Bret. This wave has a high chance of development. The next name on the list is Cindy.

ORIGINAL POST 6/19/2023: Tropical Storm Bret officially formed in the central Atlantic Ocean Monday afternoon. Tropical Storm Bret is currently moving westward at 21 mph with sustained winds at 35 mph. Sea surface temperatures are running well above normal for this time of year, so further organization and strengthening are expected to occur.

The National Hurricane Center Forecast Cone shows Tropical Storm Bret strengthening as it continues a westward track towards the Caribbean Sea by the end of the week. The NHC has Tropical Storm Bret forming as early as this afternoon and then eventually becoming a Category 1 Hurricane on Wednesday.

Forecast uncertainty increases as we get closer to the weekend. Tropical Models show a potential path that is spread across the eastern Caribbean Sea to the northern Atlantic Ocean. As of this time, the system does not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico but we are closely monitoring for any changes to the forecast path in the coming days.

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