Fire danger continues as all-time record heat possible Thursday, tropics very active
We have managed to get a few storms out there as moisture has increased near coastal areas. These are moving very quickly, however, embedded within an easterly flow aloft, so it doesn't appear they'll provide much relief in regards to the drought situation.
These showers and storms will stay confined to areas south of I-10 through the evening hours, but should taper off once we lose the daytime heating. Winds will continue to be elevated through the rest of this afternoon, due to an increasing pressure gradient across the area. With high heat, dry conditions, and gusty winds--the fire danger is high for today as wildfires will have the ability to spread quickly with these types of conditions. A RED FLAG WARNING remains in effect!
The high pressure is only going to build further south later this week. This will bring in some of the hottest temperatures we've seen yet and we could threaten all-time record highs. My forecast calls for a high of 106 degrees and 107 degrees Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Reaching these high temperatures will depend on storm activity. Models do try to show storm activity Thursday afternoon, which would normally curb the heating process and lower the high temperature of the day. It appears, however, these storms may form later in the afternoon once the high temperature has already occurred. If he hit 107 degrees it will tie the record for the hottest temperature ever recorded in Lafayette. The European model, which has a high temperature of 108 degrees, has us breaking the record, but I won't go quite that high with my temperature. I'm with everyone hoping the European model is wrong!
The ridge of high pressure looks like it could shift further westward by the end of this week and the weekend. It'll still be hot, with highs in the triple digits, but rain chances could increase into the 30-40% range Saturday, Sunday, and Monday!
TROPICS
The Tropics remain very active as we've seen Emily, Franklin, and Gert all within the past 48 hours.
I have a feeling our tropical disturbance in the Gulf, which has gotten better organized, will likely become a tropical storm tonight, before making landfall across South Texas tomorrow. This would give that area some beneficial rainfall, but besides the stronger winds today, impacts for our area will be negligible. None of these systems pose a threat to Louisiana as it appears the strong high pressure giving us this relentless heat, will also continue to protect us from anything tropical coming from the south.