FIRST WARNING: Another winter storm possible as sharply colder air approaches

We are tracking an Arctic airmass set to drop temperatures more than 50 degrees, along with the chance of light wintry precipitation.

(KXAN) — Following the warmest temperatures of 2022 thus far, we are tracking a sharp return of winter-like temperatures that may be accompanied by wintry precipitation.

High temperatures Monday afternoon in Austin reached 85° — the warmest so far this year, topping the 81° high temperature Camp Mabry recorded on Jan. 19. Temperatures will likely be even warmer Tuesday, reaching 87° in Austin.

We are tracking a very powerful Arctic cold front creeping down the Plains, bringing wind chills to -40° along with 10" of snow to parts of the Northern Plains. Blizzard Warnings are in effect in Fargo, North Dakota associated with this cold front.

Following highs in the 80s locally Tuesday, the cold front arrives early Wednesday, dropping temperatures through the day. Computer model indications show a 50°+ temperature drop in the Austin area between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon, with some areas northwest of Austin potentially dropping to freezing before sunset Wednesday.

Along with the drastically colder weather, we expect the chance of light precipitation beginning early Wednesday, continuing through Thursday night. This will likely begin as liquid rain, then potentially transition to a wintry mix. Light freezing drizzle appears the most likely precipitation type in many areas beginning Wednesday evening and lasting through the night.

Additional precipitation is possible through much of Thursday as temperatures hover in the 30s to lower 40s areawide. At this time, it appears Austin may be below freezing for 6-12 hours at a time both Wednesday night and again Thursday night, but warm above freezing Thursday afternoon. The Hill Country may stay below freezing for a longer period of time.

Uncertainty is still high

In some potential winter storm setups, models agree well on how cold we will get and the type of precipitation that may fall. That is not the case this week.

While many popular forecast models keep temperatures above freezing locally and keep precipitation as liquid rain, our two best high-resolution models are much colder and suggest a widespread icing threat. While this is a small percentage of our forecast models, we are edging our First Warning Forecast toward those colder models at this time as they traditionally handle these shallow Arctic cold fronts best.

Stay tuned for frequent updates over the coming days as the system approaches. While it is impossible to predict exact impacts at this time, we may at least have the threat of a few icy bridges/overpasses later this week — and potentially more widespread impacts than that.