Is Russia serious about nukes? UT Austin expert weighs in

AUSTIN (KXAN) -- In a chilling reference to his nuclear capabilities, Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the stakes for interfering with the invasion of Ukraine saying anyone who tried to interfere would “lead to consequences you have never seen in history."

But is Russia serious about nukes? A University of Texas professor that teaches courses on international relations theory, international political economy, and international security and is also the author of The Invisible Hand of Peace: Capitalism, the War Machine, and International Relations Theory, doesn't think so.

"This is part of a typical bargaining or signaling game going on. We saw this a lot during the Cold War, so in terms of escalation it's not really surprising," Dr. Patrick McDonald said. "This is a rhetorical escalation but in terms of changing things on the ground, I don't think it'll have much effect."

A reporter asked President Biden in a briefing Thursday to flat out say whether he thought Putin was threatening a nuclear strike, to which Biden responded: "I have no idea what he's threatening."

Nukes aside, U.S. officials have previously estimated the fighting could kill up to 50,000 civilians, 25,000 Ukrainian military personnel and 10,000 Russian soldiers — that assumes no nuclear weapons are used.

The outcome of this invasion, McDonald predicts, will be largely determined by the Ukrainian people fighting on the ground.

"In particular, the ability of Ukrainians to mount a successful counter-insurgency," he said.