An unorganized cluster of showers and storms in the northern Gulf of Mexico has potential to bring meaningful rain to Central Texas late week.

AUSTIN (KXAN) -- As is normal for this time of year, the Atlantic basin is starting to warm up with tropical activity. Forecast models point to two areas of possible development that bear watching - one in the mid-Atlantic and the other in the northern Gulf. Given the proximity and more immediate timeline of effects with the tropical low in the Gulf, we focus our attention there.

What's the fuss about?

There are two potential rainmakers in play for Central Texas this week - (1) an unusual June cold front expected early Monday morning and (2) a tropical low in the northern Gulf.

We have relatively high confidence in the arrival of the cold front Monday morning, triggering spotty to scattered showers/storms early week. Our uncertainty surrounds the tropical disturbance off the coast of Louisiana. This unorganized cluster of showers and storms has a low probability of further organization (20%), but it doesn't have to be a big mean tropical storm (or, unlikely, a hurricane) to affect Central Texas.

In fact, this could potentially set us up with a 'best case scenario' of being able to steal the moisture associated with the disturbance while missing out on the high winds, travel disruptions, etc. associated with an organized landfalling system.

So, it begs the question... will we actually get good rain out of this tropical low? Let's dig into the forecast data...

ANALYSIS: forecast model comparison

The pessimistic model - AMERICAN

Initially, the first model to hint at the possibility of a tropical moisture surge late week, the American (GFS) model run has trended lighter on both coverage and intensity of rain. Sunday morning's model run came in much drier, a noticeable contrast from the previously wetter outlook the model originally showed in prior runs. Due to the inconsistency, more data is needed for a clearer picture.

The bullish model - EUROPEAN

The latest European (ECMWF) model - updated every 6 hours- shows quite a bit more rain late week in Central Texas. This is likely due to a more direct path of the tropical low through coastal and south-central Texas Thursday into Friday. Latest forecast data points toward 2"-5" of rainfall. At this point, this seems to be more wishful thinking as these forecast totals are outliers compared to the general consensus.

First Warning Forecast

As of Sunday morning, the First Warning Weather forecast has trended up with late-week rain chances (20%-30%) while keeping temperatures near average (mid-90s). Not yet leaning one way or the other, our forecast is a blend of models, with current thoughts being wetter than the American model but not quite as bold as the European.

Stay with the First Warning Weather team as we continue to analyze the newest data.