Hurricane activity peaks in September - Here's why

Austin (KXAN) - Three months into the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season and things are heating up, literally.

We are approaching the peak of activity for the season on Sept. 10, and with Colorado State University and NOAA both calling for an above average season, more storms are expected to develop.

Barry Goldsmith, Warning Coordinator Meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Brownsville, recently spoke with Meteorologist Freddy Vela about the reasonings behind why we see more storms around this time of year.

Read an edited version of the conversation below, or use the video player above to listen.

Freddy Vela:
So, what day is the peak of hurricane season, and what causes more storms around this time of year?

Barry Goldsmith:
The statistical peak is Sept. 10. There are multiple reasons on why it is the peak. First, the waves coming off Africa have their most energy and the amount of moisture to work with in the atmosphere.

Second, the sea surface temperatures and the depth of the sea surface temperatures from the Atlantic Ocean to the Caribbean and Gulf are at their peak value, which is the fuel that makes these storms go.

Finally, there’s a factor called the Madden-Julian Oscillation. It’s a wave of energy that travels around the globe, starting in the Indian Ocean and moving into the western Atlantic. That can trigger a bit more uplift in the atmosphere to allow these storms to form and see more of them. So often these three factors combine, and that timing is the early to mid part of September.

Vela:
Do we see a shift in the hurricane development zone because of this oscillation pattern?

Goldsmith:
Yes. The development zone can shift as it moves across from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific and ultimately into the Atlantic. When the certain phase hits there, the uplift increases, and when that maxes out with the timing of the waves from Africa and the warm sea surface temperatures, you can see multiple storms develop at once, and often we see that between late August and mid to late September.

Vela:
This is a question we hear a lot: Is Texas “due” for another big storm?

Barry:
I like to say there’s no “D-U-E” in the hurricane world—it’s “D-O.” If the atmosphere determines it wants to do something bad and make it come to Texas, it will do it, including in back-to-back years. Now we've been fortunate not to see that. But if you look at Houston, Galveston -- they remember Hurricane Beryl from last year. So there was a direct hit in the state. Again, it only takes one storm to make your season if all those puzzle pieces fit together just right. Whether it's August or September, even early October, the state of Texas could have a landfall. So we have to always be on the front foot. Be prepared, no matter what the forecast, as this pattern could evolve just right and give us a landfall. So don't worry about whether we're "D-U-E" or not. The atmosphere may "D-O" what it can to cause something to come over this way.