Redistricting: The states likely to rewrite their maps next

(The Hill) — Missouri Republicans advanced a new set of congressional lines this month that look to add one pickup opportunity for them in the House ahead of 2026, making them the third state poised to tee up a new House map before the midterms.

Legislators in the Show Me State convened for a special session over several of Gov. Mike Kehoe’s (R) priorities, including an unusual move to redraw the state’s congressional lines mid-decade amid a larger push from the White House to have red states rewrite their maps before 2026. Kehoe is expected to sign the new map into law soon. 

Blue states have started to respond in kind as they look to blunt potential Republican gains in the midterms. 

Here’s a look at the states expected to redraw their House maps next: 

Ohio 

Ohio lawmakers are tasked with submitting a new congressional map before the end of the month, after the one that was used during the 2022 cycle didn’t receive enough bipartisan support.  

The Buckeye State was originally the only state expected to redraw its maps this year before President Trump and the White House pressed other GOP states to do redistricting ahead of next year’s midterms. Republicans are expected to try and at least make reelection harder for Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D) and Emilia Sykes (D).

If lawmakers aren’t able to pass their map with enough bipartisan support before the end of the month, the process is kicked over to the Ohio Redistricting Commission. If the commission isn’t able to secure support over a proposed House map from its two Democratic members by the end of October, the process returns to the state legislature. 

Depending on how much bipartisan support the proposed House map receives in the Capitol, it’ll either remain in effect for four years or until the end of the decade. Lawmakers have until the end of November to pass their map. 

Indiana 

Indiana Republicans are weighing whether to redraw their House map to make further gains in their congressional delegation as the GOP faces an intense lobbying effort from the White House to do redistricting. 

Vice President Vance traveled to the state last month to speak with top GOP leaders about drawing a new set of congressional lines and Indiana lawmakers heard about the issue again during a visit to the White House.  

Gov. Mike Braun (R) has not yet called a special session, taking cues from the House and Senate leaders first.  

Some members had initially been vehemently opposed to redrawing the congressional map, though some members have since shifted their tone. Redistricting, regardless of which state is doing it, inevitably endangers lawmakers in nearby districts – raising risks for the GOP in states like Indiana and for Democrats in states like California. 

Maryland 

Maryland Democrats are exploring the possibility of redrawing their state’s House map in a long-shot bid to pick up one seat. 

“When I say all options are on the table, all options are on the table,” Gov. Wes Moore said on CBS News’s “Face the Nation” last month.  

Maryland House Majority Leader David Moon (D) introduced legislation in July that would allow the Old Line State to do mid-decade redistricting if another state passed a new congressional map first. 

Maryland state Sen. Clarence Lam (D) separately introduced legislation that would redraw the state’s congressional map with the intent of giving Democrats a net pickup opportunity. It would also require the state to use an independent redistricting commission if certain other states use a commission as well. 

Meanwhile, the state’s Democratic delegation in the House met earlier this week regarding potentially redrawing the maps, according to Punchbowl News, though members appeared not quite ready to move forward with mid-decade redistricting. 

The only seat available for the party to pick up is Rep. Andy Harris’s (R-Md.) in the Eastern Shore.  

Democrats tried to craft an 8-0 map to eliminate his seat after the 2020 U.S. Census, but their map was struck down in 2022 over partisan gerrymandering, and there’s a strong possibility Democrats would risk a repeat scenario if they try their hand at trying to pick up another House seat in the state again. 

Florida 

Florida Republicans have signaled that they are likely to consider redrawing their state’s maps, with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in July calling it “appropriate” for the state to redistrict mid-decade. 

A House select panel on congressional redistricting was newly formed and is anticipated to convene next month, while it remains unclear if a similar one will form in the state Senate. 

A handful of Democratic incumbents in the Sunshine State are all possible targets in a new map, including those near Orlando, Tampa and South Florida. 

Illinois 

Illinois Democratic leaders have left the door open to redrawing their state’s House map, though recently there has been little movement publicly over it. 

Illinois Democrats have a 14-3 advantage in their House delegation, and the Prairie State has been graded poorly over its congressional lines for its sheer Democratic gerrymandering. 

After the 2020 U.S. Census, the state's congressional delegation sank to 17 House seats, losing a district from the prior decade. 

While the map Democrats passed after the latest Census introduced several member-on-member primaries, their party ultimately came out ahead with the new map during the 2022 midterms – bringing Democrats from a 13-5 edge beforehand to a 14-3 tally. 

Nebraska 

Rep. Don Bacon’s (R) decision to retire from representing the swingy 2nd Congressional District in Nebraska has put the House seat within further reach of Democrats, whose efforts to unseat Bacon have been foiled cycle after cycle. 

Yet there has been some interest in potentially redistricting the state to keep the state’s congressional delegation within the Republican fold, Axios reported earlier this month.  

Some Republican lawmakers have already signaled they might be interested in redrawing their state’s map, while others are skeptical there are even enough votes to overcome a filibuster, according to the Nebraska Examiner. 

While there was speculation that the White House would bring up redistricting when Nebraska state lawmakers made a visit there earlier this month, the Examiner noted the topic was notably not brought up.  

Kansas 

Kansas Republicans are also mulling whether to do mid-decade redistricting in their state in hopes of weakening Rep. Sharice Davids’ (D-Kansas) seat in the 3rd Congressional District.  

Republicans previously tried to redraw Davids into a tougher district ahead of the 2022 election, overcoming a veto from Gov. Laura Kelly (D) and litigation over the map, though the Kansas Democrat was able to win reelection for a third time that cycle. 

Republicans have the numbers in the state legislature to overcome another likely Kelly veto again if they decide to pursue mid-decade redistricting.