How tariffs could affect employment in the months ahead

The economy added 228,000 jobs in March — generally more than economists expected. The labor force participation rate was up a tad, and the unemployment rate rose just a touch. All signs of a fairly resilient labor market. 

Of course, there’s a “but”: That data was collected in mid-March and we are now firmly in April, with new, broad tariffs expected to take effect over the course of the next week. Add those tariffs to existing tariffs — and all that changing trade policy could affect employment moving forward.

That saying, “past performance is no guarantee of future results,” could apply to this jobs report. 

“Things were good in mid-March, but what do they look like in mid September?” said Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute.

Tariffs on imports will mean higher prices for, let’s say, imported hoodies and headphones and whiskey.

And if demand for all that falls? “Less stuff is going to be going through that chain to the end consumer,” Berger said.

Which means we’re likely going to need fewer people to transport, store and sell that stuff. 

“Less of it’s gonna go into retailers hands. You probably need less salespeople,” he said.

Manufacturing jobs here could be hit too, particularly in the short-term.

UBS Chief U.S. Economist Jonathan Pingle said, take automakers, who’ll be paying more for imported parts.

“If the price goes up a lot, because the production costs have gone up a lot, the demand for those cars is probably going to fall,” he said. “And that probably means less workers to produce those cars.”

Pingle said if tariffs stay in place, manufacturing could move back to the U.S. But that could take in some cases, a year, in others, years, plural.

Also, not every manufacturing job abroad equals a new job for a person here. Instead, it’ll equal a job for a robot.

“You could imagine 10 people overseas becomes three U.S. workers plus …  the other seven people’s jobs being done by technology paired with the U.S. worker,” Pingle said.

Jobs in some industries will be less affected. Like services that are created and used here, said Kory Kantenga, head of Economics, Americas, at Linkedin.

One that’s especially needed by an aging population is health care. 

“We’re going to need workers to take care of our elderly, to take care of us,” he said.

But overall, UBS’s Jonathan Pingle said these tariffs are gonna hurt economic growth, hurt our national wealth and ultimately hurt demand for workers.