What falling copper prices mean for the global economy

Two weeks ago, the price of U.S. copper surged to a new record high as buyers stocked up, only to collapse after last week’s tariff blitz. 

Yes, other commodity markets took a similar hit: The price of oil; cash crops like soybeans and cotton; and precious metals like gold are also plummeting. 

But copper markets have a special reputation for helping us predict the macroeconomic future. You need copper to make or build just about anything in this economy. Almost every sector relies on it. 

“From construction, infrastructure and also defense,” said chief market strategist Phillip Streible at Blue Line Futures.

He said those are the traditional markets for copper. But the material also in high demand for various kinds of emerging tech. 

“EV vehicles, which use four times more copper than traditional gas vehicles; AI which is energy intense — computing requires copper in order to perform its function,” said Streible. 

All of this is why demand for copper, both the actual metal and copper futures, usually portends healthy economic growth. 

But the recent run on the 29th element doesn’t quite fit that pattern, said Trevor Yates, senior analyst at Global X ETFs. 

“Copper prices were almost synthetically high because of this pre-buying,” said Yates.

Pre-buying ahead of last week’s tariff announcements, which ultimately did not target copper. 

Craig Pirrong, a professor of finance at the University of Houston, said copper is on a short list of products, including lumber and semiconductors, exempted by the White House.

“One possible reason would be that they surmised that Americans would bear most of the cost of a tariff on copper,” and decided against a specific tariff for now, said Pirrong. 

So, why have copper prices been tanking? 

“This is a verdict about the overall prospects for the economy and not something specific to the copper market,” said Pirrong. 

He said slowing demand for copper could foreshadow a broader slowdown around the world, especially in China, the world’s top buyer of the metal.