NCAA Tournament: Best bets for the Final Four
The Hotline was 2-1 in the Elite Eight as momentum ATS continued to build.
The miss came with Virginia-Purdue: I was fortunate to be in position to cover but then took the loss when the Cavaliers hit two free throws with one second left.
For the record, my projected champ is out (North Carolina), but the Hotline nailed the other three semifinalists.
And if you’re looking for precedent similar, but identical to what Virginia would experience by winning it all after losing in the first round last year as a No. 1, here’s the famine-to-feast list.
First round: 2-2
Second round: 3-1
Sweet 16: 3-1
Elite Eight: 2-1
Total: 10-5
Five-star special: 1-1
All picks against the spread.
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com (for entertainment purposes only … or not)
No. 3 Texas Tech (plus-2.5) vs. No. 2 Michigan State (total: 132.5): The Red Raiders’ run has been built on defense, coaching and elite guard play by Jarrett Culver. Michigan State can match, if not exceed TTU in every category and has the added benefit of being more experienced, mentally tougher and in possession of more late-game scoring options. Rock fight from beginning to end. Pick: Michigan State.
No. 5 Auburn (plus-5) vs. No. 1 Virginia (total: 130.5): If Auburn guards Bryce Brown and Jared Harper produce another 40- or 50-point combined effort, the Tigers … will have a chance. Anything less than a stellar game from the backcourt (against one of the nation’s most efficient defenses) will result in a lopsided win for the Cavs. On the other hand, if Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome play like they did against Purdue, then Virginia could win handily regardless of Auburn’s backcourt production. The Cavs are better, and decisively so. Pick: Virginia.
Straight-up winners: Michigan State and Virginia
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