Pac-12 recruiting: Arizona is bursting with prospects, but many are leaving the state … and the conference
Arizona State has an Arizona state problem. So does Arizona — and the greater Pac-12, for that matter.
Considerable focus (here and elsewhere) has been placed on the Pac-12’s long-haul recruiting challenges in California — both the shrinking talent pool and the number of players signing with other Power Five conferences.
But that’s hardly the only fragile section of the conference’s prospect pipeline.
The talent pool in metropolitan Phoenix is expanding rapidly, with 4- and 5-star recruits popping up with each new housing development. The high school senior class features the No. 1 quarterback prospect in the country in the 247sports composite rankings (Spencer Rattler); the junior class has the No. 2 quarterback (Jack Miller) and the No. 1 cornerback (Kelee Ringo).
But the Sun Devils and Wildcats haven’t capitalized. The top talent in Arizona is leaving Arizona at an eye-opening rate.
“I don’t know if the kids who live there see the local programs as elite,’’ Rivals recruiting analyst Adam Gorney said. “And there’s a snowball effect. If kids (have success elsewhere), more schools will go into Phoenix.”
To a certain degree, this isn’t a new issue.
Sure, N’Keal Harry stayed home, but he’s more exception than rule. Elite players have been leaving Arizona for years (Brett Hundley to UCLA, Andrus Peat to Stanford, Christian Kirk to Texas A&M, Byron Murphy to Washington).
That exodus has grown more pronounced with the uptick in quality and quantity of talent, a development Arizona State assistant coach Shaun Aguano attributes to two primary factors:
The population boom in the Phoenix suburbs (Chandler and Gilbert, to name two), and improved coaching at the youth and high school levels.
“There are more former NFL players, parents who played at the highest level, moving into the state, and they’re coaching at the youth level,’’ said Aguano, who joined ASU’s staff this winter after a successful run as the head coach of Chandler High School.
“There’s more personalized teaching, too. The coaching overall has gotten a lot better. More kids are coming into high school polished and ready to play.”
The upturn in quantity of top-tier prospects has driven a corresponding increase in marauders — not only from the Pac-12 but other Power Five conferences.
The results are alarming for the Sun Devils and Wildcats:
*** The top-five players from the class of 2018 left the state, led by quarterback Tyler Shough, who signed with Oregon.
*** The top-16 prospects in the class of 2019 signed elsewhere — one of the most astounding aspects of the just-completed recruiting cycle.
Oklahoma signed Rattler, the No. 1 player, while Texas and Nebraska gobbled up the rest of the top five.
The best in-state player (per 247 rankings) to sign with either local program was No. 17 Connor Soelle, a 3-star athlete headed to ASU.
The Wildcats’ best in-state pickup was offensive lineman Jordan Morgan, the 30th-rated prospect.
*** The early projections for the class of 2020 are equally ominous: Ringo, the best cornerback in the country, is leaning to Texas while Miller, the quarterback, appears bound for Ohio State.
The buffet line includes non-traditional powers: Cal signed three of the top-12 players in the senior class, suggesting an academic component to the exodus.
“The high-end academic kids see those (out-of-state) schools as better options,’’ Gorney said.
“Even Cal, which hasn’t been winning, can go in and say, ‘You’ll play early and get an elite education.’ It has been a historical challenge for both” ASU and Arizona.
Aguano didn’t dispute the premise.
“Anytime you’re in a battle with one of the perennial academic schools, when you have parents who understand the quality of the education, it’s tough,’’ Aguano said.
“But the other schools in the Pac-12, we can win those battles.”
The inability to secure in-state players is a serious issue for the Wildcats, one second-year coach Kevin Sumlin is working to reverse.
(Arizona is the current favorite for Jason Harris, a 4-star defensive end and the son of Desert Swarm middle linebacker Sean Harris.)
But the flight of 4- and 5-star prospects is far more striking in context of ASU’s recruiting over the years, because so many live within a short drive of campus.
Aguano’s arrival on staff is a clear attempt by second-year coach Herm Edwards to fortify the homeland against marauders, but it serves other purposes, as well:
The Sun Devils needed a running backs coach, and Aguano has experience with the position. And he’s from Hawaii, another fertile recruiting ground for Pac-12 programs.
“We know we’re not a good fit for everybody; some kids just want to leave,’’ Aguano said. “But we’re paying close attention and trying to make staying here the first priority.”
*** More Hotline coverage of Pac-12 football recruiting trends can be found here.
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