Pac-12 football look-ahead series: Strongest and weakest units in the South

After watching the South muddle through the fall and lose many of its top players to the NFL, the Hotline plunged into the division’s depth charts with great interest and one goal:

To find evidence an uptick is coming … that mediocrity won’t dominate the proceedings once again … that the South will be the equal (or close) of the North … that it has the talent and experience at enough positions to raise the Pac-12’s floor in 2019.

After hours of research, the Hotline can conclusively state that we cannot draw any conclusions.

Too many teams are too heavily reliant on unproven players, particularly on defense, for us to presume division-wide improvement.

Now that we’ve been clearly unclear about that matter …

Welcome to the final installment of the Hotline’s post-spring/early-summer look-ahead series.

Thus far, we’ve examined the overall shape of the divisions (North, South), broken down the schedules and addressed the quarterback depth (analysis, podcast). And last week, we focused on the strongest and weakest units for each team in the North.

The next time you read a Hotline analysis of the upcoming Pac-12 football season, training camp will be underway.

(The first team to report, Arizona, is on the field in late July.)

Please note: I did not include quarterbacks in the evaluations below, and special teams were not considered.

*** Arizona
Strongest: Running back. Not surprisingly, Rich Rodriguez left talent behind in the backfield … J.J. Taylor is one of the top tailbacks in the conference (1,434 yards last season), and he’s hardly the Wildcats’ only big-play option: junior Gary Brightwell averaged 5.8 yards per carry and had multiple 100-yard games. (Also: The quarterback is said to have decent wheels.) … We should note that Arizona is well stocked with quality linebackers (Colin Schooler, Jalen Harris, Tony Fields), and a reasonable case could be made for slotting that unit here.
Weakest: Defensive line. After briefly considering the offensive line, we opted for defensive front, where the Wildcats have little in the way of proven playmakers following P.J. Johnson’s departure … They’re in solid shape with edge rushers, but traction in the trenches is vital in a division where power-running Utah is the team to beat … The Wildcats need returnee Flinton Connolly to provide consistent production and off-the-radar players to emerge.
Top talent: quarterback Khalil Tate. He’s far from a finished product and yet, if healthy, can change a game with the flick of a wrist or plant of his foot. Efficiency in the pocket is the area to watch.

*** Arizona State
Strongest: Secondary. In the first draft of this column, we identified the receivers as ASU’s best unit: the trio of Kyle Williams, Frank Darby and Brandon Aiyuk combined for 98 catches last season. But uncertainty about their effectiveness without N’Keal Harry to occupy defenses prompted the change to the secondary … With cornerbacks Chase Lucas and Kobe Williams, plus safety Aashari Crosswell (honorable mention all-conference as a rookie), the Devils have the foundation for one of the best back lines in the division.
Weakest: Defensive line. The back seven must carry the load for ASU, because the front looks vulnerable … Renell Wren’s departure to the NFL — he was a fourth-round pick — and the transfers of Darius Slade and Jalen Bates leave behind one of the most unproven lines in the conference … The Sun Devils will lean heavily on Tautala Pesefea, a transfer from American River College, and on coordinator Danny Gonzales, whose 3-3-5 system could help mask some of the deficiencies up front.
Top talent: linebacker Merlin Robertson. Arrived with loads of hype and was even better than expected (77 tackles, 5.0 sacks). Named Pac-12 Defensive Freshman of the Year. The NFL awaits in three years (or maybe two).

*** Colorado
Strongest: Wide receivers. It starts with Laviska Shenault, one of the best in the nation, but doesn’t end with Shenault. The Buffaloes can lean on K.D. Nixon, who had 52 catches and four touchdowns last season, and Tony Brown (32 catches) when Shenault attracts the inevitable double teams … That trio alone should provide quarterback Steven Montez with plenty of options in the aerial game and open the line of scrimmage for the retooled rushing attack. But the Buffs also have promising underclassmen like Daniel Arias and Maurice Bell.
Weakest: Defensive line. We considered the offensive front for this category but defense won the coin flip … Mustafa Johnson is a first-class playmaker on the end, but he stands alone: Everyone else (starters and reserves alike) is young, unproven or both. It’s a who’s who of who, essentially … Sophomore Terrance Lang and junior college transfer Jeremiah Doss are perhaps best prepared to contribute consistently. And watch redshirt freshman Jalen Sami, who represents the unit’s size at 320 pounds.
Top talent: wide receiver Laviska Shenault. If healthy and if used properly by the new coaching staff, Shenault will contend for Pac-12 POY honors. As an all-around playmaker (Wildcat formation, slot, wide), nobody’s better.

*** UCLA
Strongest: Secondary. The Bruins’ best unit in 2018 took several personnel hits but should still be the most reliable on either side of scrimmage this fall … Cornerback Darnay Holmes is an all-conference talent while safety Quentin Lake stands as a future star. With Holmes and Lake, the Bruins need only steady contributions elsewhere for a solid unit to form … Of note: If not for the lack of clarity on the status of Keisean Lucier-South, who had academic issues in the spring, we might have selected the linebackers.
Weakest: Wide receivers. With their recruiting base, the Bruins should never lack playmakers on the outside, yet the unit has underperformed for years … Theo Howard had 51 catches last season but must elevate his play to the point he creates opportunities for other wideouts. Beyond Howard, there isn’t much proven talent … We’re expecting Chip Kelly to mix, match and mask now that he has a better feel for the personnel outside and in the backfield.
Top talent: safety Quentin Lake. The son of the former UCLA All-American Carnell Lake was an impact player last season as a true sophomore. But we’ll be honest: The quantity and quality of NFL talent in Westwood is lacking compared to the historical standard.

*** USC
Strongest: Defensive line. Where most teams are weak, the Trojans are stout as they come … Ends Marlon Tuipolutu and Christian Rector are pocket-crushers, while Jay Tufele and Brandon Pili fortify the interior. They’re all NFL prospects, with the requisite size and quickness. And the best of ’em all might be a freshman, end Drake Jackson … If the Trojans play to their potential — granted, that’s a 1,200-pound if — this could be the best defensive line the Pac-12 has produced since Washington’s dominant front in 2016.
Weakest: Secondary. The backfield desperately needs transfer cornerback Chris Steele to be granted immediate eligibility — because of the circumstances that prompted his departure from Florida, Steele seemingly has a fighting chance with the NCAA — but that’s just one item on a lengthy wish list … Inexperience and injuries span the unit, with safety Talanoa Hufanga’s broken collarbone atop the concerns. He should be healthy for training camp, then needs to remain healthy.
Top talent: linebacker Palaie Gaoteote. Not an easy selection — we gave serious consideration to Tufele and Hufanga — but not a surprise, either. Gaoteote played enough as a freshman to show why he was considered the top inside linebacker in the prep class of ’18. Has all the tools to become the next great Trojans linebacker.

*** Utah
Strongest: Defensive line. Like the Trojans, Utah is stocked up front … Bradlee Anae causes havoc off the edge (14 TFL) and is a prime candidate for Pac-12 defensive POY honors. Tackles John Penisini and Leki Fotu form a 650-pound tandem that’s the envy of most programs in the FBS. (Both were named to the all-conference team last year.) … Any contributions from the likes of Pita Tonga and Mika Tafua would be a bonus … The unit is good enough to offset holes elsewhere on defense.
Weakest: Offensive line. We considered the wide receivers and secondary for this category, but both units have more proven talent than the offensive front … Typically Utah’s strongest unit, the line could play to the standard of its predecessors if given good health and time to coalesce … The Utes lost three key starters (including all-conference tackle Jackson Barton and guard Jordan Agasiva). Darrin Paulo, who made 13 starts at right tackle, is the anchor unless proven otherwise.
Top talent: cornerback Jaylon Johnson. Combine a first-rate talent with an in-demand position, and you get an elite prospect. Johnson could spend a decade in the NFL and is No. 8 on the Hotline’s list of the Pac-12’s top draft candidates for 2020.

Why we need your support: Like so many other providers of local journalism across the country, the Hotline’s parent website, mercurynews.com, recently moved to a subscription model. A few Hotline stories will remain free each month (as will the newsletter), but for access to all content, you’ll need to subscribe. The good news for Hotline faithful: I’ve secured a discount: 12 cents per day for 12 months. Click here to subscribe. And thanks for your loyalty.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline

*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.