Pac-12 bowl projections: Why wait to look silly when you can start the process now

The Hotline’s weekly bowl projections are making their debut a month earlier this season because the current pecking order will hold through late November.

If there no chance of anything changing, why not call our shot now?

Either that, or the Hotline’s crack research staff thought publishing projections at this ridiculously early point would provide a platform for commentary on larger postseason trends and developments relevant to the Pac-12.

The postseason is, after all, forever hanging over college football.

The Hotline has two primary spots for commentary on the playoff and bowl games:

The Saturday Night Five reaction column and these projections, which will be published Tuesday throughout the regular season.

Broader topics and trends will be addressed up top, with the team-by-team breakdowns below filling in the pixels.

Rose Bowl
Team: Utah (1-0)
Home games left (seven): Northern Illinois, Idaho State, Washington State, Arizona State, Cal, UCLA, Colorado
Road games left (four): USC, Oregon State, Washington, Arizona
Comment: Cross-division misses (Oregon and Stanford) provide the South’s best team with extra edge. CFP berth might require 13-0 because of the soft non-conference schedule. New Year’s Six at-large berth (Cotton) might be within reach if the Utes finish with two losses and no conference championship.

Alamo Bowl
Team: Oregon (0-1)
Home games left (seven): Nevada, Montana, Cal, Colorado, Washington State, Arizona, Oregon State
Road games left (four): Stanford, Washington, USC, Arizona State
Comment: We’ll stick with the Ducks as the North winner, for now. Yes, they blew a fabulous opportunity in Arlington, but the result doesn’t diminish their chances to win the division — assuming they get some receivers back before the trip to Stanford in two weeks.

Holiday Bowl
Team: Washington (1-0)
Home games left (six): Cal, Hawaii, USC, Oregon, Utah, Washington State
Road games left (five): BYU, Stanford, Arizona, Oregon State, Colorado
Comment: All the difficult games are at home (except Stanford), bolstering UW’s prospects for the division. For postseason positioning, keep in mind that second place in the North and 10-2 might work better than a division title and 10-3 (with a loss in the conference championship). That’s true of every team, in either division.

Redbox Bowl
Team: Washington State (1-0)
Home games left (five): Northern Colorado, UCLA, Colorado, Stanford, Oregon State
Road games left (six): Houston, Utah, Arizona State, Oregon, Cal, Washington
Comment: Standing policy with the Cougars is to assume a loss in the Apple Cup, which limits post-season upside unless they’re positioned to win the division regardless of the outcome in Seattle. Added benefit to this projection: WSU has never played in the Redbox (or its numerous predecessors).

Sun Bowl
Team: USC (1-0)
Home games left (five): Stanford, Utah, Arizona, Oregon, UCLA
Road games left (six): BYU, Washington, Notre Dame, Colorado, Arizona State, Cal
Comment: Whether the starting quarterback is freshman Kedon Slovis, third-stringer Matt Fink or veteran Jack Sears returning from the transfer portal, the Trojans look like the second-best team in the South until we see otherwise. Too much talent at too many positions — and too much uncertainty with other teams.

Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Stanford (1-0)
Home games left (six): Oregon, Washington, UCLA, Arizona, Cal, Notre Dame
Road games left (five): USC, UCF, Oregon State, Colorado, Washington State
Comment: Fragile position in the pecking order due to likelihood that nearby Redbox would prefer a team from out of town and that previous appearances (2016 and 2018) would prevent a trip to the Sun. Unless the Cardinal can make a case for one of the top three, it could slip to the bottom two.

Cheez-It Bowl
Team: Arizona State (1-0)
Home games left (six): Sacramento State, Colorado, Washington State, USC, Oregon, Arizona
Road games left (five): Michigan State, Cal, Utah, UCLA, Oregon State
Comment: Reminder here that the Alamo, Holiday and Redbox have their choice of teams, as long as there is no more than a one-game difference in conference record. The Sun, Las Vegas and Cheez-It must pick teams in order of conference record, with exchanges only in extreme circumstances and by agreement of both schools, both bowls and the conference office.

At-Large
Team: Cal (1-0)
Home games left (five): North Texas, Arizona State, Oregon State, Washington State, USC
Road games left (six): Washington, Mississippi, Oregon, Utah, Stanford, UCLA
Comment: Last year’s appearance in the Cheez-It would prevent a trip to Phoenix. Lack of offense would prevent the Bears from winning enough games to claim a spot elsewhere in the conference lineup. But with 39 bowls, 78 spots and 130 FBS teams, there will be openings.

At-Large
Team: UCLA (0-1)
Home games left (six): San Diego State, Oklahoma, Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon State, Cal
Road games left (five): Washington State, Arizona, Stanford, Utah, USC
Comment: We remain convinced the Bruins will find their way to the postseason, using five games in the muddled division, plus Oregon State and Cal, as the foundation. Unless they lose this week to SDSU. In that case, they’re done.

Not Eligible
Team: Arizona (0-1)
Home games left (six): Northern Arizona, Texas Tech, UCLA, Washington, Oregon State, Utah
Road games left (five): Colorado, USC, Stanford, Oregon, Arizona State
Comment: We pegged the Wildcats for 5-7 in our preseason projections, and that was with a successful trip to Hawaii. At this point, it’s difficult to envision any path to six wins that doesn’t include a victory over Arizona State.

Not Eligible
Team: Colorado (1-0)
Home games left (six): Nebraska, Air Force, Arizona, USC, Stanford, Washington
Road games left (five): Arizona State, Oregon, Washington State, UCLA, Utah
Comment: Need to see more, especially with that schedule. In a best-case scenario, the Buffaloes enter conference play needing just three wins to secure a berth. Need to see more before we can picture that.

Not Eligible
Team: Oregon State (0-1)
Home games left (five): Cal Poly, Stanford, Utah, Washington, Arizona State
Road games left (six): Hawaii, UCLA, Cal, Arizona, Washington State, Oregon
Comment: It wasn’t the loss to Oklahoma State that left us with visions of total doom for the Beavers this fall. It was the way they lost: utterly defenseless.

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