Pac-12 picks of the week: Two big games, one potential spoiler (from within)
*** My weekly conversation with Doc’s Sports handicapper Raphael Esparza (@VSIdocsports) is available below. Esparza will join me each week during the season to discuss all the Pac-12 games …
A handful of teams could keep the Pac-12 out of the College Football Playoff yet again.
But this year, one of those teams is one of its own.
USC could crush the conference’s semifinal hopes, all by itself.
If the Trojans win out, the Pac-12 is done.
If they beat Oregon on Saturday, then Arizona State (road), Cal (road) and UCLA (home), there’s no hope for the Pac-12.
USC would hand the Ducks a second loss, thereby eliminating them from the CFP race.
And by following that result with three more victories, the Trojans would box Utah out of the South title.
The best the Utes could do would be a first-place tie (at 8-1) with the team that beat them head-to-head.
USC, not Utah, would advance to the conference championship game — the Pac-12’s only true blue blood playing the role of ultimate spoiler.
Lacking a division title, the Utes aren’t going to the CFP.
This isn’t the SEC West.
Oh, and one more point: We don’t expect the Trojans to win out, unless they win Saturday.
If they slay Oregon, the dynamics shift and the odds change.
The Trojans would be favored in the final three.
We’re 16 quarters from next-level cannibalism, folks.
Last week: 2-3
Season: 28-28
Five-star special: 4-5
All picks against the spread.
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com (for entertainment purposes only, or not)
Open weeks: Cal, Stanford, Arizona State and Washington State
Colorado (+6.5) at UCLA: Saw this line and figured it must be a mistake. The Buffs are sagging (four losses in a row), the Bruins are surging (two wins in a row). And it’s the way UCLA is winning that suggests a blowout: With Joshua Kelley and the running game leading. If Dorian Thompson-Robinson attempts more than 20 passes, something has gone wrong. Pick: UCLA
Utah (-3.5) at Washington: The extra week to prepare gave UW time to devise a strategy for keeping Jacob Eason upright. No team in the conference is hotter than Utah, but no team had a more comfortable middle-third of the season, either (three home games and a trip to Corvallis). This will be the Utes’ toughest test, by an order of magnitude, since they ventured to the Coliseum on a Friday in late September. Pick: Washington.
Oregon (-5) at USC: The Washington schools slapped Oregon around for 66 points, and USC has more playmakers than both. There are two paths to victory for the Ducks: One relies on a slew of USC mistakes (turnovers); the other relies on their offensive line dominating scrimmage. The fate of Oregon’s season depends on the duels up front. Pick: USC
Oregon State (+5.5) at Arizona: We expect a jump in intensity from Arizona’s defense after the coordinator change, but that jump will last no more than a half. After that, it’s about personnel and execution against a talented offense that had two weeks to prepare. The other matchup — Arizona’s offense against the Beavers’ defense — is a draw: Both are erratic. Pick: Oregon State
Straight-up winners: UCLA, Washington, USC and Oregon State
Five-star special: UCLA. How the number hasn’t jumped into the low double-digits, I cannot begin to fathom.
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