Saturday Night Five: Wild day features Kevin Sumlin’s dismissal, USC’s escape, title game pairing and uncertainty in the North
A wild day for the Pac-12 featured critical comments by Kirk Herbstreit, Colorado's loss, USC's last-second win, Kevin Sumlin's dismissal and a tentative championship game pairing.
Reaction to Pac-12 developments on the field, and off …
1. From chaos to calm
The Pac-12’s biggest Saturday began with mayhem and ended with a reasonable facsimile of order.
First came Kirk Herbstreit’s brutally honest perspective on the state of the Pac-12 — “They’ve become less respected than the American” — on the ESPN GameDay broadcast.
Then came word that Cal-Washington State was canceled due to a positive COVID test within the Bears’ program. (The contact tracing process left them below the player threshold.)
Then came Colorado’s loss to Utah, which denied the Pac-12 a chance to match two undefeated teams in the conference championship … but also eliminated the sticky issue of how to handle the Buffaloes as an undefeated, second-place team.
And for a good portion of the evening, it appeared the Pac-12’s other undefeated team would fall.
But USC was USC, producing yet another last-minute touchdown drive and edging UCLA 43-38 in what might have been the best game of the season.
The Trojans clinched the South the moment Colorado lost, but their latest escape allowed them to remain unbeaten and, perhaps, climb into the top 10 of the next CFP rankings (Tuesday).
The other semi-stabilizing development came at 7 p.m., when the conference announced the pairing for the championship game: USC will host Washington on Friday.
At least, that’s the plan for now …
2. Washington’s waiting game
In its news release on the championship matchup, the conference made no mention of Washington’s predicament, but it’s real and it’s dire.
The Huskies were unable to play this weekend in Eugene because of significant roster depletion (players in isolation and quarantine), and we’re skeptical of their availability for the title game.
At some point, the Pac-12 needs an answer from UW: Can you play, or not?
How long will conference officials wait before changing the matchup?
Out of fairness to USC, it should be Monday morning, at the latest.
Although the Hotline hasn’t confirmed the specifics of UW’s issues, our sense is that a change in the quarantine period — from 14 days to seven — would allow the Huskies to restock the active roster and play on Friday.
But that change must be handled by King County; it’s not a university matter.
If they don’t change the quarantine period and the Huskies cannot participate, then Oregon would slide into the championship game opposite USC.
And if for some reason the Trojans can’t participate, Colorado would take their place.
(Note: The matchups for Week Seven will be announced on Sunday morning.)
3. USC’s precarious path
Speaking of the Trojans, their situation can be summed up with an imaginary voice-over:
“Congratulations to USC for winning the South and for being the Pac-12’s highest ranked and only unbeaten team.
“As a reward for your efforts, you shall play for the conference title on five days rest and face an opponent that has been off for two weeks.
“Best of luck to you!”
It’s unfortunate, and you could make the case that the situation described above would only happen in the Pac-12 (because, ahem, it would only happen in the Pac-12).
But the best team in the regular season now faces a competitive disadvantage in the championship game.
This isn’t a case of short week vs. regular week.
Or full week vs. two weeks.
It’s short week vs. two weeks.
Washington has been shut down for days because of the COVID issues, although the coaches have undoubtedly been doing film study for days.
But Oregon … goodness, what a mess that would be.
The Ducks didn’t win their division, lost two more games than USC, would back into the championship game (if UW cancels) and, once there, would have a massive advantage in rest and preparation.
Isn’t it suppose to work the other way around?
Isn’t the advantage supposed to go to the team that earned it on the field?
Only in the Pac-12, folks.
And guess what: USC being set up to fail is bad for the conference.
The Pac-12 needs its champion to have the best record and highest ranking possible at the end of the season.
USC is the only team with a shot to finish in the top 10.
In fact, the Trojans now have a 49 percent chance to make the semifinals, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
We’re highly skeptical of that figure; the Trojans need a spate of upsets to enter the conversation.
But clearly, their path isn’t completely blocked, and they are the only Pac-12 team on the path.
And yet, for a variety of reasons — some of its own doing and some out of its control — the Pac-12 has created the most difficult scenario possible for its highest-ranked team.
4. Landing the plane
Plenty of fans have wondered why the conference doesn’t push the championship game back one week, allowing Colorado and USC to play for the South title and Washington and Oregon to square off for the North.
On this point, we completely agree with the conference: The title game needs to be played as scheduled on Friday.
For one thing, there’s no guarantee that all four teams would be healthy next weekend, or that the two finalists would be healthy for a delay championship on Dec. 26-27.
Second, the delay would pull the Pac-12 out of alignment with the Power Five, rendering it irrelevant next weekend when title games are played and the CFP pairings are set.
Also, a delay would leave the conference champion with one week to prepare for the New Year’s Six against an opponent (from the SEC or Big Ten) that had at least two weeks of rest.
Finally, the decision isn’t the Pac-12’s alone: FOX owns the game and favors the competition-free Friday night spot on championship weekend.
Move the game to Dec. 26-27, and it carries far less value.
To paraphrase SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, who was asked recently about delaying his conference’s season:
At some point, you have to land the plane.
The Pac-12 needs to land its plane next weekend, and the conference office smartly realized that.
5. Arizona’s tumult
The Hotline will take a deep dive into Arizona’s coaching search on Monday — not only with a list of possible candidates but also a look at the philosophical framework for the search.
For now, though, some context:
Kevin Sumlin was hired in the same 2017-18 offseason cycle that landed Herm Edwards at ASU, Chip Kelly at UCLA, Mario Cristobal at Oregon and Jonathan Smith at Oregon State.
It was a doozy of a six-week stretch, for sure.
Here we are, three years later, and it sure seems like Arizona was the only miss.
Edwards hasn’t won much in Tempe, but the roster is young and promising.
Smith is clearly the right fit for OSU, one of the toughest jobs in the Power Five.
Cristobal has a conference title in Eugene and stellar results on the recruiting trail.
And Kelly, despite two wobbly years, finally has the Bruins on the proper trajectory.
That’s a solid hit rate for the conference.
Where did the Wildcats go wrong?
For starters, their vacancy was late in the hiring cycle — they dismissed Rich Rodriguez in early January.
And Arizona is a tough job, far tougher than ASU, UCLA or Oregon.
We thought Sumlin was a smart hire because his name would help raise the program’s profile on the recruiting trail and in the media.
In fact, he did neither.
Nor did he bring the necessary level of energy.
Also, he made poor decisions with his coaching staff.
All in all, it was a complete flop.
Over the next few weeks, we’ll see if the Wildcats learned from their mistake.
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