Kurtenbach: Three reasons why trading Jimmy Garoppolo doesn’t make sense for the 49ers
Trey Lance looks like he's going to take the Niners' starting quarterback job soon, but don't expect Jimmy Garoppolo to head out the door in the coming weeks.
Ask anyone who has been to 49ers training camp, even for a day: Trey Lance looks great. Better than expected, even, and expectations were pretty high for the No. 3 overall pick.
There’s no quarterback competition at this juncture of the preseason. Incumbent Jimmy Garoppolo is still first-string and Lance is going up against the 49ers’ backup defense — but the talent disparity between the two quarterbacks has been so jarring (in Lance’s favor) that seems likely to change in the coming days and weeks.
There’s no much value in prolonging the inevitable. Lance will eventually be the 49ers’ starting quarterback and Garoppolo will play for another team — likely as a starter.
A trade of Garoppolo this preseason cuts to the chase.
But I don’t foresee a trade going down for three reasons:
1. Two is better than one
What’s better than having one quarterback who can lead you to the Super Bowl?
Having two quarterbacks who can lead you to the Super Bowl.
For all of the uninspiring play Garoppolo has put on the field in his 49ers career, the Niners’ biggest issue at quarterback wasn’t his play as the starting quarterback — this team went to the Super Bowl in his only full season at the helm. No, the issue was the lack of a viable backup for No. 10.
Nick Mullens had his day, but he was never going to lead a team to the playoffs, while C.J. Beathard earned far more opportunities in San Francisco than he really deserved.
Garoppolo looked like an All-Pro compared to those quarterbacks, so when he went he went down with an injury, the 49ers’ chances of winning went down with him.
But whether Garoppolo or Lance starts in Week 1 this year, having the other as a backup is a luxury. If it’s Jimmy G, you have a more talented quarterback on the bench in Lance. If Lance gets the start against the Lions in Detroit, the Niners have arguably the most capable backup quarterback in the NFL behind him.
The Niners like what they’ve seen from Garoppolo and it’s impossible not to be enamored with what Lance has done. But why go into this season with only one quarterback? Why not try to play a season with a competent backup for the first time in the Kyle Shanahan era?
2. The kid might not be ready
I might be out here saying that Lance is the better quarterback, but I’m also noting that it’s early August and he hasn’t gone against his own first-team defense for a full practice, much less a defense that can, and will, hit him.
So while the talent might be undeniable, there’s still a long way for him to go, yet.
And while I might be an impatient person, Shanahan is not. Remember how long it took him to start Garoppolo after he acquired him? For those of you who don’t, it was a month — an excruciating month. And he really only made the switch because Beathard was injured.
If the Niners were to move on from Garoppolo, Lance would have to never look like a rookie. For as great as he’s looked at camp — once more: he’s spectacular — that’s a tall order for a 21-year-old at the most important and toughest position in professional sports.
The Niners also don’t want to throw out Lance before he’s ready. Once Lance is given the starting job, he cannot relinquish it. That’s not how things work for the No. 3 overall pick.
Shanahan has a good quarterback in Garoppolo. I think he has a great quarterback in Lance. But he prefers to be safe than sorry, and when you’re dealing with a player it cost three first-round picks to acquire, that makes some sense.
Lance has to be annoyingly better than Garoppolo to get the start in Week 1. It’s too early to say that’s the case. Talk to me at the end of the month, though.
3. What’s the deal?
The Niners have already tried to trade Garoppolo. They said they didn’t, but they did. And the best offer they had was a sixth-round draft pick.
That’s not exactly an elite return.
That’s the problem with an expensive quarterback you can’t trust to play a full season (and who might not be any good outside of a Shanahan offense) — they’re not worth much to other teams.
The notion that the Colts, whose starting quarterback Carson Wentz went down with a foot injury in training camp, would move a first-round pick for Garoppolo is pure fantasy.
You might want to cite the Sam Bradford to Minnesota trade from a few years ago — the Vikings, desperate for a starting quarterback after Teddy Bridgwater’s catastrophic knee injury, sent a first-round pick to Philadelphia in that deal.
But the trade looked ridiculous for the Vikings in retrospect and Wentz is expected to return this season — perhaps before the Niners play the Colts in October. Indianapolis is not desperate enough to be that stupid.
Maybe something else happens around the league that leaves a team lacking for a quarterback, but even then, I doubt their first thought will be “let’s get Jimmy G.”
How can the Niners get a better offer now than they had a couple of months ago? They could hold onto salary, sure, but will that recoup one of the first-round picks the Niners used to get Lance? I seriously doubt it.
No, San Francisco would be lucky to get a Day 3 pick for Garoppolo at this juncture, and whether or not Lance is ready to start Week 1, that’s simply not worth it to the 49ers.