Pac-12 basketball rewind: NCAA seeds, thriller in Tucson, WSU misses its chance, Stanford’s fade, upticks by ASU and Utah and more
What we learned on the third-to-last — or antepenultimate, for all you wordsmiths out there — weekend of the regular season …
1. The committee likes Arizona, and UCLA.
As expected, the Wildcats were a No. 1 seed in the NCAA selection committee’s reveal of the top-16 seeds as it currently stands.
We were more interested in their overall seed (No. 3) relative to those of Gonzaga, Auburn, Kansas, Baylor and Kentucky in order to better understand Arizona’s likely regional placement (San Francisco, San Antonio, Chicago or Philadelphia).
Based on the reveal, we’re skeptical the Wildcats can overtake Gonzaga — and earn a spot in San Francisco region — without the Zags losing. There just isn’t enough quality left in the schedule to power the Wildcats past Gonzaga with wins alone.
They have, at most, two games remaining against teams guaranteed to make the at-large field: USC (March 1) and either USC or UCLA in the finals of the conference tournament. That’s not a lot of rocket fuel.
Meanwhile, the Bruins received a No. 4 seed from the committee and, tellingly, were not the last of the 4s. With the No. 14 overall seed, they were ahead of both Texas and Providence.
Unlike Arizona, the Bruins possess several opportunities to impress the committee down the stretch with a trip to Oregon, a visit from USC and then, potentially, two high-level games in Las Vegas: against USC in the semifinals and Arizona in the finals.
The Pac-12 is on course to produce two top-four seeds for the first time since 2017, when it had three: No. 2 Arizona, No. 3 Oregon and No. 3 UCLA.
2. Oregon isn’t toast, yet.
The Ducks appeared on the brink of collapse following a double-digit home loss to Cal and a 24-point loss at Arizona State a few days ago.
But their gritty performance at Arizona in a riveting 84-81 loss — they passed every NCAA Tournament ‘eye test’ known to man — showed there’s enough fight left for an at-large berth.
The key will be replicating the effort and intensity over the final fortnight. That shouldn’t be difficult with the Bruins and Trojans visiting Eugene this week. But the Duck can’t pull a no-show on the trip to Washington to close the regular season.
3. Washington State is a basket short, again.
The Cougars had plenty of chances to improve their NCAA Tournament position but lost at USC 62-60 on a jumper by Boogie Ellis with 0.2 seconds left.
WSU is now 0-6 in games decided by one possession. More importantly, the Cougars remain winless in Quadrant I games.
Sunday evening, they managed just five points in the final six minutes and were scoreless in the last two.
With five consecutive losses and little juice left in the schedule, their path into the NCAAs is extraordinarily narrow.
4. ASU and Utah are on the rise.
To varying degrees and for differing reasons, the Sun Devils and Utes haven’t played to expectations this season. (Not that those expectations were high to begin with.)
But after weekend sweeps — ASU over the Oregon schools; Utah in the Bay Area — both teams have unlocked momentum at just the right time for the Pac-12 tournament.
The late-season upturn in Tempe should end any speculation about coach Bobby Hurley’s future. Even through the most turbulent stretches, the Sun Devils (10-15/6-9) have given maximum effort. Lately, they have mustered the execution to match.
5. UCLA’s depth shines.
A 26-point home win over Washington isn’t cause for pause — until you examine the boxscore.
The Bruins were without Johnny Juzang (hip injury) and received just 10 combined points from Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyger Campbell. Yet they polished off the Huskies with no trouble.
Why? Because wing Jaylen Clark, who replaced Juzang in the lineup, and reserve guard David Singleton combined for 47 points on 19-of-26 shooting.
Put another way: The No. 6 and 7 scorers on UCLA’s roster were good enough to generate almost as many points as Washington’s entire team (50).
That depth will serve the Bruins well in the postseason.
6. Stanford slides to the brink.
The Cardinal spent many weeks doing Cardinal things, which is to say: Hovering near .500 in the Pac-12 standings. But this weekend was bad enough to potentially resonate at a high level — the level at which coach Jerod Haase’s future will be decided.
Stanford blew a second-half lead Thursday and became the first team this season to lose at home to Utah. Two days later, the Cardinal collapsed in the final 12 minutes in double-digit loss to Colorado.
The wasted home weekend comes at the end of the sixth consecutive season in which Haase has failed to produce an NCAA Tournament-worthy product.
Stanford (15-12/8-9) finishes with three road games (Cal, Arizona and ASU).
The odds of a late turnaround are slim.
The likelihood of Haase losing his job is increasing.
7. Jabari Walker is underappreciated conference-wide.
The Colorado forward proved once again that he’s one of the Pac-12’s top talents with a 19-point, 15-rebound performance in a victory at Cal.
It was his fifth consecutive double-double and 14th this season, which tops the Pac-12 — nobody is close — and is tied for ninth nationally.
The double-double streak ended Saturday with a fairly quite performance at Stanford: 10 points and three rebounds. (Then again, the Buffaloes didn’t need Walker to dominate.)
We expect to see the 6-foot-9 sophomore selected in the first round of the NBA Draft this spring, after he’s named first-team all-conference.
He’s one of the five or six best players in the league.
8. The best of shows.
The Pac-12 took maximum advantage of its national platform Saturday evening. ESPN sent its ‘College GameDay’ crew and No. 1 announcing team to Tucson, and the quality of play more than met the occasion.
Arizona and Oregon produced 40 minutes of tense, high-level action that easily matched the competition on ESPN’s marquee games from other conferences during the season.
For the Pac-12 brand, it was a major victory — the most entertaining competition of 2022 in either of the marquee sports, save for those breathless four hours in Pasadena on Jan. 1.
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