Could 49ers drop Lance for Brady — or even keep Garoppolo? Depends on which ‘insider’ you ask
The 49ers haven’t had a practice in 25 days, yet Trey Lance has either solidified himself as the quarterback in 2022 or he’s simply not ready when the alternatives include Jimmy Garoppolo and Tom Brady.
In this corner is ESPN’s Adam Schefter Wednesday on the Ari Meirov NFL Show podcast. Schefter says “not so fast” on assumptions that Garoppolo is out the door, even though the quarterback seemed to indicate as much at his postseason press conference.
“I’m just telling you that Trey Lance was probably further behind than people realized,” Schefter said. “And they have a roster that can win now.”
Then there is Jay Glazer of Fox Sports, who told NBC Sports Bay Area last week that Lance is on schedule to be the quarterback after sitting for a year as the No. 3 pick in the NFL Draft.
“I’ve heard great stuff about him, honestly, Glazer said on Feb. 16 on the 49ers Talk podcast with Matt Maiocco. “I’ve heard they love him. They’re enamored with him. He does some things in practice that make you go, `Oh, my goodness.’ But he’s young. I think they did the right thing.”
Finally, to complete the triangle, there is Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com.
“It shouldn’t really surprise anyone,” Florio wrote. “What have we heard over and over regarding Brady’s football career? What more does he have to prove? Nothing. But he has never played for the team he grew up rooting for. And that team — the 49ers — has a Super Bowl-ready roster. Just add quarterback.”
Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers coach and the man who will make the decision in consultation with general manager John Lynch, likely has a good idea the direction he’s headed with Lance vs. Garoppolo.
Shanahan saw them both all season and knows how much progress Lance made and if he’s a viable option for a team which in terms of core talent matches up favorably with any team in the NFL.
Garoppolo’s last press conference sure sounded like a farewell. Shanahan and Lynch couldn’t come out and say it because in theory they’re trying to extract a high second-day draft pick or two in exchange for a potential starter.
On March 16, the first day of the new league year and the start of free agency, Garoppolo’s ability to reject any trade expires. So mum’s the word until then and maybe even longer.
With all due respect to Schefter, the 49ers’ plan as implemented by Shanahan since Lance was drafted hasn’t wavered. Garoppolo would be No. 1 until he was beaten out, which never materialized. It got interesting at 3-5, but Shanahan stayed the course. No reason to think he won’t do the same this offseason and recalibrate the offense taking into account Lance’s ability to move and have a larger array of throws in his arsenal.
Things get more interesting where Brady is concerned. At 44 years old, he had more completions (485), attempts (719) and yards (5,306) than at any time in his career, and his touchdown passes (43) were his second-best.
This isn’t the same guy who appeared to be sliding a bit in his later New England days. He won a Super Bowl following the 2020 season and rallied the Bucs from a 27-3 deficit to a tie score against the Rams in the divisional round. He was as good as he’s ever been.
If Brady is seriously interested in playing for the team of his childhood, Shanahan and Lynch aren’t going to dismiss it out of hand. On the contrary, you look at it very seriously.
Brady played it coy in his Tampa goodbye, never using the term “retirement” and then issuing a “never say never” shortly thereafter.
It’s conceivable the 49ers could basically swap out the Garoppolo money of $26.5 million and instead give it to Brady.
That would come at a price that goes beyond Brady’s salary. It would be costly when it comes to the salary cap. The 49ers are scheduled to be about $4.8 million over the cap.
Garoppolo’s salary dump — as planned — would give the 49ers some breathing room in an offseason that includes potentially bringing back some of their own free agents such as guard Laken Tomlinson, defensive tackle D.J. Jones, nickel corner K’waun Williams and safety Jaquiski Tartt as well as targeting other free agents at positions of need.
Then there are contract extensions for runner/receiver Deebo Samuel and edge rusher Nick Bosa to consider.
Putting Brady on the roster makes all of that more difficult. Not impossible — salary caps can be manipulated and money can be pushed forward — but that’s not the way the 49ers usually operate.
It also means another year on ice for Lance, assuming Brady would stay healthy. And Brady is not one to give up either game snaps or practice snaps, which would stunt Lance’s development.
Of course, if Tampa Bay doesn’t want to play ball, it’s all moot. The Bucs hold his rights and can make exorbitant trade demands. Maybe even in the form of draft choices, which the 49ers already gave up in a big way last year to get Lance.
Then, the 49ers are back to square one and an honest assessment of Lance vs. Jimmy G.
Until, of course, another insider proclaims Aaron Rodgers has become available to the 49ers.