Inside the 49ers: San Francisco’s not any closer to Super Bowl after free agency’s first wave
There's been a mix of good and bad news for the 49ers this offseason, with at least one major move still to make.
Three days into the free agency frenzy, are the 49ers in better position to end a 27-season Lombardi Trophy drought?
No, the 49ers are not better. Not after the initial three days of NFL free agency.
They did not go “all in” with massive contracts or trades to import the missing piece or two, nor did they retain arguably their top two free agents. Not that there is anything totally wrong with that conservative approach.
They made their “all-in” move last year, moving up to the No. 3 draft slot, and they’re poised to see if quarterback Trey Lance pans out as a first-year starter, in succession of the still-to-be-moved Jimmy Garoppolo.
They’ve, so far, lost five free agents: running backs Raheem Mostert and Trenton Cannon; defensive tackle D.J. Jones, left guard Laken Tomlinson and offensive lineman Tom Compton.
Reaching two NFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl in the past three seasons equates to the 49ers remaining contenders. Their infrastructure, culture and roster haven’t been crippled. Reinforcements are coming, just not in a rush.
Meanwhile, Garoppolo’s fate remains a distracting cloud over the offseason, and whether that’s for better or worse is to be determined later.
To weigh the scales of overall contention, let’s play good cop/bad cop with the 49ers’ outlook, six months out from their opener:
POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS
1. RUSSELL WILSON’S EXIT
Deebo Samuel, in a Fanatics online chat Tuesday, was asked to rate how happy he was about the Seattle Seahawks’ trade of Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos. “Ten,” Samuel replied. “Ten. Ten.”
Wilson went 17-4 against the 49ers in his decade in Seattle. Now, he’ll still face them on this season’s schedule when Denver hosts the 49ers. But it’s a win for the 49ers and their division cohorts to rid themselves of an arch nemesis. Consider it addition by NFC West subtraction (Part I).
2. CORNERBACK INKED
Adding a premium cornerback was the 49ers’ top priority in free agency, and they did so by signing Charvarius Ward — without much long-term risk. Ward, who blossomed his past four seasons with the Kansas City Chiefs, agreed to three-year, $42 million pact.
Unless other starting-caliber cornerbacks are added, the 49ers figure to start Ward and Emmanuel Moseley, with the top reserves being 2021 draft picks Ambry Thomas and Deommodore Lenoir. Cast into the market are nickel back K’Waun Williams and veterans Josh Norman and Dontae Johnson.
3. RAIDING THE RAMS
About 20 years ago, the 49ers were vocal in their offseason strategy to match up with the Rams, whose 1999 team won the Super Bowl and returned to that stage two years later. Well, the Rams are again reigning champs, but the 49ers shouldn’t stress too much about how their rosters compare.
Remember, the 49ers had won six straight against the Rams before falling in the NFC title game. So far, the Rams have bid farewell to left tackle Andrew Whitworth (retired), linebacker Von Miller (Bills), cornerback Darious Williams (Jaguars), defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day (Chargers), guard Austin Corbett (Panthers) and punter Johnny Hekker (cut).
Miller cost the Rams second- and third-round picks in last season’s trade. The Rams also may not get back last year’s other midseason addition: Odell Beckham Jr., who’s a free agent and in ACL recovery from his Super Bowl injury.
4. PILE OF DRAFT PICKS
The 49ers find themselves with nine draft picks, even before any compensation from a Garoppolo trade, and even after sending first- and third-round picks to the Dolphins as part of last year’s trade.
So, the 49ers have the ammunition they need to trade back into the first round, or they can hang tight with a trio of selection on Day 2 (Nos. 61, 93, 105), then rekindle their Day 3 magic (a pick in each round, plus two more in the sixth round for the NFL’s compensatory payout).
With so many picks, how greedy do the 49ers really need to be in their compensation for Garoppolo, when they’d be better off gaining cap space to sign key players at other positions?
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UH-OH CONCERNS
1. AFC WEST OPPONENTS
No division has fortified itself more than the AFC West, which matches up against the NFC West teams on the NFL schedule rotation. The 49ers will host the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers, while visiting the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders.
The AFC West’s quarterbacks: Wilson (Broncos), Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Justin Herbert (Chargers) and Derek Carr (Raiders).
The AFC West’s pass rushers: Joey Bosa/Khalil Mack (Chargers), Maxx Crosby/Chandler Jones (Raiders), Nick Chubb/Randy Gregory (Broncos) and Frank Clark/Chris Jones (Chiefs).
2. LOSSES IN TRENCHES
Tomlinson and Jones developed into top-notch starters the past five seasons with the 49ers. Therefore, they priced themselves out of staying in town – at least at their respective position’s price points.
Tomlinson (Jets; three years, $40 million) and Jones (Broncos; three years, $30 million) commanded more money than the 49ers should pay, considering the potential replacements already in place via the draft.
It’s time the 49ers see what they can get out of guard Aaron Banks (2021 second round) and defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw (2020 first round), though don’t discount other options at those spots, especially on defense with Kevin Givens and Maurice Hurst back in the rotation. Joining that front is 305-pound veteran Hassan Ridgeway, who reportedly is signing a one-year deal ($2.5 million) after six seasons with the Colts and Eagles.
Compton, who replaced right tackle Mike McGlinchey the final 10 games last season, is joining the Broncos, too. Compton blocked well in the run game, not so much in pass protection. McGlinchey and Trent Williams are entrenched as the starting tackles, and Jaylon Moore is poised to serve as the swing tackle in reserve.
3. TOM BRADY UN-RETIRES
Tom Brady ended his 40-day retirement to pursue an eighth Super Bowl ring. And he’s bringing back a familiar supporting cast in Tampa Bay.
Brady and the Bucs almost rallied past the Rams in the NFC divisional playoff round. All other NFC South teams are scrambling, either for Deshaun Watson at quarterback or better overall talent. Brady’s path into the playoffs is set, again.
4. COACHING STAFF SHAKEUP
Kyle Shanahan has lost his best wingman, Mike McDaniel, who’ll be fascinating as the Dolphins’ coach. One byproduct of McDaniel’s exit is him attracting Mostert there in free agency, when Mostert also could have eased in his comeback on the 49ers behind 2021 replacement Elijah Mitchell.
A slew of other assistants also left in the biggest staff shakeup since Shanahan took over in 2017.
Change could be good, of course, so this may not be a major concern for 2022. Keep an eye on: Brian Griese’s foray into coaching quarterbacks, Brian Schneider’s arrival as special teams coordinator, Brian Fleury’s shift to George Kittle’s tight ends coach and Leonard Hankerson’s promotion to wide receivers coach.