Election shows that South County may no longer be a lock for conservative candidates

Redistricting, changing demographics are causing political shifts

For about a quarter-century, Santa Clara County’s mostly rural District 1 has been a conservative stronghold, with former board supervisor Don Gage and after him Mike Wasserman serving as a bulwark against the more progressive northern districts.

But if Tuesday’ election results are any indication, it may no longer be the lock it’s traditionally been for conservative supervisors, thanks to a combination of demographic changes and redrawn boundaries..

Progressive San Jose Councilmember Sylvia Arenas appears headed for a runoff against Johnny Khamis and holds a small lead over him with 28.71% of the vote.

They’re headed for a runoff this November since neither was able to get above the 50% threshold, and if Arenas goes on to win she will give the board a dominant progressive bloc.

Arenas, a labor-backed candidate, represents the portions of East San Jose with big Latino populations. On the city council, she has focused on women and child care issues while voting with the Latino Caucus and butting heads with Mayor Sam Liccardo’s pro-business proposals. On the campaign, she considers herself the family-focused candidate with public sector experience and the added bonus of a master’s degree in public administration from the University of San Francisco.

Part of her success in Tuesday’s primary can be attributed to the county’s most recent redistricting, said San Jose State University political science professor Larry Gerston.

Seen as a win for the region’s progressive wing, redistricting allowed Arenas to expand her voting base. Her city council district, located in southeastern San Jose, used to be in the county’s District 3. Through redistricting, Arenas’ council district was pushed into District 1.

The opposite happened for Khamis. The former San Jose councilmember was forced to move after his home address in Almaden was pushed out of District 1 and into District 5. That made him lose some of his key voting base.

Even a tiny number of votes being shifted between districts can make a big change, Gerston said.

“You cannot underestimate the consequence of redistricting,” he added. “All you need to do is shift two thousand votes (to make a difference).”

Redistricting also played a role in shifting South County’s demographics in Arenas’ favor.

Proponents of the new redistricting proposal argued that more affluent communities such as Almaden and Los Gatos should be pushed out because they had less in common with less wealthy, more Latino cities like Morgan Hill and Gilroy.

“A lot of people in South County didn’t feel like their voices were heard,” said Bob Staedler, a land-use consultant who served on the county’s redistricting commission. “The communities of interest made it clear there wanted to be a change.”

That led to the share of Latino residents in the district to increase from 28.8% in 2010 to 30% in 2020, according to census numbers from the county. The area’s Asian population has also increased, from 16% to 30% over the course of a decade.

“It is a less rural race,” Gerston said. “It is a less affluent race. It is a more Latino race. And it is a more liberal district.”

Gerston added that Arenas also has the benefit of having the exposure that comes with being a public official. Khamis, who is running on a mandate to revamp the county’s approach to homelessness and is pushing for more fiscal responsibility, ended his reign as District 10 San Jose councilmember in 2020. He then ran in that year’s state Senate District 15 race, coming in fifth place during the March primary.

Going forward, Gerston said, the conservative candidate has tough prospects based on Tuesday’s results.

The two other candidates who garnered substantial votes besides Arenas and Khamis were Morgan Hill Mayor Rich Constantine and Santa Clara County Board of Education member Claudia Rossi, who both ran on more progressive platforms. Gerston said Arenas will likely take Constantine and Rossi’s votes in November.

“You’re talking about 60% of the vote moving in a liberal direction,” he said. “I believe (Khamis) is going to have a big uphill fight.”

Also at stake is the future of the board’s ideological balance. At the moment, Gerston said whether District 2 Supervisor Cindy Chavez wins the San Jose mayoral race is paramount. If Arenas wins in November and Chavez is replaced by another progressive, it leaves District 5 Supervisor Joe Simitian as the remaining moderate vote on the board.

“If someone progressive replaces Cindy Chavez, then you’re talking about a board closer in lockstep than it has been, Gerston said. “But there’s a long way to go here.”

With a population of about 400,000, South County covers vast tracts of unincorporated land that stretches from south San Jose all the way down to Gilroy and as far east as the San Antonio Valley and Henry W. Coe State Park.