Is the California ‘exodus’ slowing?

The three-company average shows 55.7% of California 2022 van activity was outbound to other states. That's down from 59.5% in 2021, 58.5% in 2020.

The “Looking Glass” ponders economic and real estate trends through two distinct lenses: the optimist’s “glass half-full” and the pessimist’s “glass half-empty.”

Buzz: Relocation trends by van line suggest California’s outmigration challenges – more residents departing than arriving – are shrinking but still appear immense.

Source: My trusty spreadsheet looked at California moving van activity for 2022 based on annual migration reports from the Allied, Atlas and United van lines. I’ve collected these stats dating back to 2004, comparing them to overall interstate relocation patterns from population reports created by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Debate: Have we seen the worst of the California “exodus” as life – and the economy – return to a pre-pandemic normal? Could California’s three-year declining population streak be nearing its end?

Glass half-full

Van data says the share of exits among all California moves shrank in 2022. The three-company average shows 55.7% of 2022 moving van activity was outbound to other states. That’s down from 59.5% in 2021 and 58.5% in 2020.

Conversely, 44.3% of California van moves last year were inbound vs. 40.5% in 2021, 41.5% in 2020.

That translates to a van migration “gap” between California departures and arrivals of 11.3 percentage points in favor of exits last year. But that’s down from a 17-point gap in 2020 and a 19-point difference in 2020.

Glass half-empty

Now, look at 2022 van moves compared with trends during 16 years of pre-pandemic life. You’ll see that the recent dips in outflow don’t erase a trend line portraying elevated outmigration.

Outbound? 55.7% exits in 2022 vs. 51.7% on average in 2004-2019.

Inbound? 44.3% arrivals last year vs. 48.3% on average in 2004-2019.

The gap? 11.4 points of outmigration in 2022 vs. 3.4% on average in 2004-2019.

Bottom line

Remember, “outmigration” is the difference between the exits and arrivals. California’s most recent population challenge is that few Americans want to, or can afford to, relocate to the Golden State.

California’s population has traditionally grown despite the domestic movement drag. The state enjoys far more births than deaths. But as the state population ages, that gap has narrowed. Also, immigration from other nations has slowed for a host of reasons.

Let’s also note that using a van line is a narrow and costly niche for relocations, though it’s a noteworthy slice because they’re typically a sign of movement among the wealthy.

Yet statistically speaking, patterns in van moves align with overall outmigration trends.

Consider that in the year ended in July 2022, Census counted 343,230 more Californians exiting the state than new arrivals. Like the van moves, that was a 25% improvement over 2021’s 458,951 outmigration. However, it was 42% higher than locked-down 2020’s 242,313.

And 2022’s overall outmigration, like moving van results, is still well above par. Using the same long-term lens I placed on van moves – the 2004-2019 average – last year’s Census outmigration for the overall population was 143% above the 141,108 historical pace of California’s net outflow.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com