Bay Area college basketball: Can anyone join Stanford women, Saint Mary’s men in March Madness?
Since 2010, the Cardinal women and Gaels men have combined for 18 NCAA bids; the Bay Area’s other 10 programs over both genders have totaled 14.
When the NCAA Tournament fields are announced next month, we can be fairly confident the Bay Area will be represented by the 12th-ranked Saint Mary’s men and the No. 6 Stanford women.
Those two programs have shouldered local postseason aspirations in recent years. Since 2010, the Cardinal women and Gaels men have combined for 18 NCAA bids; the Bay Area’s other 10 programs over both genders have totaled 14.
The landscape is much the same this season, with the prospects for a third local team wiggling into either of the brackets rating somewhere between long shot and no chance.
Here’s our analysis of all 12 teams and the odds of them hearing their name called on Selection Sunday, March 12:
Men
SAINT MARY’S (21-4, 10-0 WCC, NET 6): The Gaels have been overlooked NCAA selection committee at times in the past despite a sparkling win-loss record. But never with a computer ranking this impressive. NCAA chances: 97 percent.
SANTA CLARA (17-8, 5-5 WCC, NET 88): Like everyone else below the Broncos on this list, they will need to win the conference tournament to secure a bid. Single-digit losses to Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga provide a sliver of hope the Broncos can pull an upset at the WCC event in Las Vegas. NCAA chances: 10 percent.
SAN JOSE STATE (14-10, 5-6 MW, NET 112): The Spartans are making big strides under second-year coach Tim Miles. They are 0-5 against teams above them in the Mountain West standings, but with four more victories, they will have their highest total since 1981. Even so . . . NCAA chances: 5 percent.
USF (15-11, 4-7 WCC, NET 118): The Dons began the Chris Gerlufsen coaching era with six straight wins but are 9-11 since and have been swept by Bay Area rivals Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara. Next up is a Thursday road game against a Gonzaga team that will be smarting after its loss at Saint Mary’s. NCAA chances: 5 percent.
STANFORD (10-13, 4-8 Pac-12, NET 114): Stanford teased us by winning five in a row after losing five straight. Then the Cardinal was crushed 84-62 at Colorado on Sunday and fell into 10th place in the Pac-12 standings. Sophomore Harrison Ingram, a former five-star recruit, is averaging 9.5 points after shooting 3-for-16 on last weekend’s road trip. NCAA chances: 5 percent.
CAL (3-20, 2-10 Pac-12, NET 298): The Bears, now 350th out of 352 teams nationally in scoring, have lost 20 games for the fifth time in six years and the third season in a row. The latter distinction is a first by any Pac-12 team. Ever. NCAA chances: 0.1 percent.
Women
STANFORD (22-3, 10-2 Pac-12, NET 4): The Cardinal is coming off a road loss to Washington but Tara VanDerveer’s program has landed an NCAA bid every year this century and is 6-1 against Top 25 opponents, including an overtime loss to unbeaten defending national champion South Carolina. NCAA chances: 99.9 percent.
SANTA CLARA (14-11, 5-7 WCC, NET 115): Freshman guard Tess Heal of Australia has led the Broncos in scoring 13 times, including in their 77-72 upset of WCC powerhouse Gonzaga last Thursday. NCAA chances: 7 percent.
USF (15-9, 5-7 WCC, NET 123): Junior guard Ioanna Krimili, the reigning two-time WCC scoring champ, has nine career games of at least 30 points, so the Dons are always a threat. NCAA chances: 5 percent.
CAL (11-12, 2-10 Pac-12, NET 81): The ferocious Pac-12 accounts for the top-100 NET ranking. Also for most of the Bears’ defeats. NCAA chances: 3 percent.
SAINT MARY’S (11-13, 5-8 WCC, NET 199): The Gaels’ only win in their past six games was against Pepperdine, the WCC’s last-place team. NCAA chances: 2 percent.
SAN JOSE STATE (3-19, 1-10 MW, NET: 289): The Spartans are 1-11 away from home, and the Mountain West Conference tournament will be held in Las Vegas, not San Jose. NCAA chances: 1 percent.
Golden’s opportunity
Former USF coach Todd Golden’s Florida squad wrapped up a brutal four-game stretch of its schedule on Wednesday night with a road game against No. 3 Alabama. But the Gators still are in the hunt for an NCAA Tournament bid.
Florida’s gauntlet began with a loss to No. 5 Kansas State, before a win over No. 2 Tennessee and a loss to Kentucky. Entering Wednesday, Florida was 13-10 overall and 6-4 in the SEC but had a robust No. 43 slot in the NCAA’s NET rankings, meaning its postseason prospects remain in play. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi, in his most recent projections, listed the Gators as one of the first four teams out of the field.
Golden directed USF last season to its first NCAA Tournament bid since 1998, then departed for Florida and a six-year deal worth $3 million per season.
Front row seat
Jalen Williams, the former Santa Clara star and Oklahoma City Thunder rookie, found himself face-to-face with history on Tuesday night. Williams was matched defensively early in the game against LeBron James, who went on to break Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s all-time NBA scoring record.
“That was a pretty surreal moment . . . a once-in-a-lifetime kind of thing,” Williams told the Oklahoman. “It was pretty cool to get that challenge and that assignment.”
Williams acquitted himself, posting 25 points, seven rebounds and seven steals in the Thunder’s 133-130 victory.