Kurtenbach: The Warriors might not be anything more than a .500 team. Time’s running out to prove differently
The Warriors will receive the benefit of the doubt until the end, but with the way they’re playing, that end might come before the real playoffs start.
Klay Thompson is a true believer in the Warriors.
He might be the last one left.
After the Warriors lost their final game before the All-Star break, Thompson was asked if he believed his 29-29 team — the defending NBA champions — were still title contenders.
He’d been asked the same question earlier this season. He provided effectively the same answer as then:
“We know what it takes… I’m never going to lose confidence in this team,” Thompson said.
Yes, the Warriors’ core players know what it takes to win titles. Part of that formula is winning games in the regular season.
The Dubs simply are not doing that at a high enough rate this season. And with 24 games remaining following this break, it’s more than fair to wonder if Golden State’s problem in 2022-23 isn’t procrastination but the actualization of title-worthy basketball.
The Warriors’ reputation as a title contender has been surviving all season on flashes of greatness.
Now that the playoffs are approaching — my bet is you have already put something on the calendar for mid-April already — flashes aren’t enough.
It might sound sacrilege, but these Warriors — this iteration — might just be a .500 basketball team.
Our issue as observers is that we will not find out if that’s the case or not until the season ends.
Yes, the benefit of the doubt will be provided to this team until the very end. They have earned that level of respect. But at some point, if the Dubs are going to be something more than .500, they need to start respecting the regular season. They need to start playing some real defense. They need to stop messing around with leads. They need to start winning twice as often as they lose.
They can do these things.
That doesn’t mean they will.
If reading this column feels like deja vu, it’s fitting. The Warriors can’t shake off that .500 feeling, no matter what they do. The .500 energy goes deeper than a record. The Warriors score 118 points per game. They allow 118 points per game. They’re 22-7 at home and 7-22 on the road. They’re 5-5 in their last 10 games,
It’s good enough to keep the Warriors within punching distance, but at some point, they need to punch.
And because they have waited for so long to engage in the actual fight, they’ll need to pack a wallop once — if — they start throwing.
The Warriors enter the All-Star break as the No. 9 seed in the Western Conference. That’s only good for a spot in the play-in tournament, which, technically, isn’t the playoffs. No one is making the NBA Finals from there.
They’re within 3.5 games of the No. 3 seed. That’s good.
The issue is that they would need to hop six teams to reach that spot. Yes, if the Warriors play well, they can move up the standings, but they would need the teams above them to lose, too.
Some will, but not all. I don’t expect the Suns or Clippers to fade. The Mavericks and Timberwolves might have made the necessary upgrades at the deadline, too. There are no easy pickins.
The Warriors are also only a game above the No. 11 seed, which wouldn’t even make the play-in tournament.
We will see what happens.
Truly, everything remains on the table for the Warriors. But at some point, the evidence of this season is more prescient than the team’s illustrious recent history (which does feature a losing and mediocre season).
That point is fast approaching. It might be here before Curry’s return to the lineup.