Why Brock Purdy’s surgery delay could be a good thing for 49ers, Trey Lance
General manager John Lynch hit the right notes Tuesday while addressing Brock Purdy’s status at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis.
While the delay in repairing Purdy’s right ulnar collateral ligament isn’t ideal, an extra week or three to reduce the swelling and make for a better outcome is the right call. That is both the company line and the truth.
It also presents an opportunity for Trey Lance, the presumptive starter a year ago at this time, and he’s got a small window to assert himself.
“We have a team that’s ready to go now,” Lynch told reporters. “He has to get out there and play. Brock got that opportunity this year. He grabbed it. He did great things. We’ll see at some point how we get Trey that opportunity. Because we very much believe in who he is as a person and who he is as a quarterback.”
What the 49ers aren’t saying publicly is that having Purdy rehabbing and on the sidelines into late August and into September isn’t necessarily a bad thing in terms of 2023 and beyond.
It may in fact be a good thing as the 49ers hit a crossroads at the most important position in professional sports.
Purdy provided nothing but answers in his whirlwind nine-game stretch beginning with a relief performance against Miami after Jimmy Garoppolo left with a broken foot. Lance remains nothing but question marks to coach Kyle Shanahan and his staff.
Let’s assume the elbow rearranged by Philadelphia edge rusher Haason Reddick can be repaired with the less invasive option and allow Purdy to take the field at some point in early or mid-September.
That gives the 49ers a chance to assess whether their decision to part with two first-round picks and a third-round pick in order to move up to No. 3 overall in 2021 and take Lance is a decision which can pay dividends with a dual-threat quarterback of the future.
Or if they made a bad decision and then got incredibly lucky with their final pick in 2022 to cover for their mistake.
It’s a do-over for Lance, who had moments both good and bad in the offseason and training camp a year ago. Yet there were concerns, otherwise Garoppolo wouldn’t have been brought back on cutdown day on a reduced deal. The 49ers at that point had no idea what they had in Purdy.
Can Lance thrive from the pocket and take advantage of weapons such as Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk in a conventional way? We still don’t know.
Is Lance fast enough to get to the boundary like Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen on running plays rather than exclusively sticking his nose inside where 300-pound tackles are waiting for him? We still don’t know.
On a related matter, can Lance stay healthy? We still don’t know.
Does Lance have enough experience to be dependable in terms of decision-making in running Shanahan’s offense? We still don’t know.
None of this is a knock on Lance. He seemed to connect with his teammates and there are no red flags concerning his character. It’s easy to trust Shanahan and Lynch and their judgement but even good coaches and personnel evaluators have made mistakes on quarterbacks.
Based on what we saw last season, 32 teams blew it on Purdy. Even the 49ers, because if he was anywhere near what he showed last season he wouldn’t have been taken at No. 262.
The 49ers’ 31-7 loss against Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game and ending it without a quarterback who could throw a forward pass obscured the fact that they were incredibly fortunate at the position during the regular season.
When Lance got hurt in Week 2, Garoppolo went in and the offense got better. And when Garoppolo suffered the same fate in Week 13, Purdy went in and the offense took another step forward.
Purdy’s stats (67.1 completion percentage, 13 touchdown passes, four interceptions and a 107.3 passer rating) weren’t all that different from Garoppolo (67.2 percentage, 16 TD passes, four picks and a 103.0 rating).
But Purdy’s mobility added a bootleg element that didn’t exist with the immobile Garoppolo. And while Garoppolo actually was able to go off schedule on occasion more so than in the past, Purdy was better in that realm as well.
What Purdy did was no mirage. It happened, it was real, and it was evident the first time he played in a game that really mattered when he stared down repeated heavy blitzes against Miami.
Purdy led the 49ers to a division-title clinching win in Seattle with an oblique strain. Went head-to-head with Tom Brady and won. Won two playoff games. Won Shanahan’s trust in a way that Garoppolo never did.
What Purdy did wasn’t mystical or magical. He studied, he practiced, he executed. Health permitting, there’s no reason to believe he won’t do it again with the same coach, the same offense, the same weapons and a top-flight defense to get him the ball.
Now instead of splitting reps with Purdy in some sort of pseudo-competition, Lance gets to run the show on his own. There’s reason to be skeptical, but if Lance suddenly blossoms, having two good young quarterbacks on their first contract is a great problem to have.
Purdy’s more elongated timeline allows Lance to get the work he needs and show he’s capable of being a factor and justifying his draft status.
If Lance struggles, then it’s Purdy to the rescue. Purdy has already shown he can succeed with little or no game preparation. Based on the last two seasons, when the 49ers started 3-5 and 3-4 and made the playoffs both times, an early in-season Lance bellyflop wouldn’t be detrimental so long as Purdy can take over. He won’t be deterred by a late start.
The 49ers know what Purdy can do. Now it’s up to Lance to use all those OTA, training camp, exhibition and early regular-season snaps and explode onto the scene the way Purdy in 2022.
Then the 49ers would have a legitimate quarterback controversy, and a welcome one at that.