Chicago Bears Q&A: How plausible is it to get 3 first-rounders for the No. 1 pick? Are big moves in free agency expected?
The NFL combine is in the rearview mirror. The new league year begins in one week — and with it a free-agency period in which the Chicago Bears will have nearly $100 million of salary-cap space.
What can we expect from the Bears in free agency? Brad Biggs answers that and other questions in his weekly Bears mailbag.
How much of Ryan Poles’ comments to Peter King about getting offers of three first-rounders do you believe vs. Poles sending a message that that’s what he wants? — @tn5280
King got a long sit-down with Poles last week in Indianapolis, and the Bears general manager indicated he’d had discussions with three teams to that point and there had been enough talk to know he can get “a ‘24 one and a ‘25 one” in a trade involving the No. 1 pick.
For starters, it’s pretty clear nearly all of the smoke about interest in the pick is coming from the Bears, who in a perfect world would have an agreement in place before March 15, when the new league year starts and free agency opens. That would be ideal because Poles would know where the Bears would be selecting in Round 1 and which players could be in play for that pick.
Why would that matter? Well, for the sake of discussion, let’s say the Bears swing a deal with the Houston Texans, who have the No. 2 pick. This might be viewed as a best-case scenario as the Bears could remain there and select a player such as Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson or Poles could consider a second trade down. If the Bears make a deal with the Carolina Panthers at No. 9, maybe it puts Poles in position to consider a defensive lineman, offensive lineman, wide receiver or cornerback. Knowing which positions he can target with his first pick can serve as a small guide when it comes to free agency and which positions and players he wants to pursue aggressively.
Poles would want any buyer to pay a premium to get a deal done this early, which is much sooner than top picks have been traded in the past, and that’s understandable. The Bears clearly want to create a buzz about the pick being moved, but I think potential buyers will want to continue to do homework on the top quarterbacks in the class with private workouts, meetings and extensive interviews.
It’s certainly possible the Bears can get three first-round picks — one each in 2023, 2024 and 2025 — in a deal for the No. 1 pick. But there’s no way that would happen in a deal with the Texans at No. 2, and I find it rather unlikely the Indianapolis Colts at No. 4 would pay that kind of price to move three spots, especially in this draft. What quarterback would they be mortgaging that much future to get? Now, the Panthers might have to pay that much to jump up eight spots, and any team outside the top 10 would have to pay a very high price to entice the Bears to move back and potentially miss out on a “blue” player.
The return haul — and it sure looks like the Bears are driven to make a deal — would be totally dependent on who the trade partner is. What does Poles want to prioritize? Draft capital this year? More picks down the road? Having two future first-rounders certainly would aid the Bears if they are in the QB market themselves in the next year or two. It’s possible the Bears land three first-round picks in a trade, but they likely would have to move outside of the top five to pull that off.
How different do you expect this year’s offensive approach to be and how do you see that affecting their choices in free agency? — @mosconml
I don’t believe the “approach” will change dramatically. Luke Getsy isn’t going to overhaul his playbook. His core principles and beliefs aren’t going to shift. That being said, he’ll want to play to his players’ strengths, and that’s why there are unknowns and probably a lot of intrigue for him and his staff.
The Bears don’t want Justin Fields to run as much in 2023. I think they learned pretty quickly it’s not sustainable for him to take so many hits. They want to be a lot more efficient and productive throwing the ball, and we’ll have to see what the protection and skill positions look like. The Bears want Fields to become more comfortable taking the “cheap” throws, as Getsy called them, short outlet passes and check-downs to running backs and other targets.
Is picking in the top 10 for three years in a row Ryan Poles’ plan? Some of the most complete NFL rosters in 2022 were partly built through the first wave of free agency. — @mrmichaels312
Poles hasn’t once suggested he believes the Bears will be picking in the top third of the draft for an extended period, and if they are that bad through 2024, there’s likely to be some level of change at Halas Hall. It’s impossible to speculate how the team will fare in 2024 before we have even an inkling of what the roster will look like in 2023. The hope is the team will be far more competitive than it was this past season.
It’s easy to say some of the best teams were “partly built” through free agency, but the best teams have a franchise quarterback in place and drafted a lot of good players on both sides of the ball. The best teams use free agency to supplement the roster, maybe targeting a position or two, but teams that lean heavily into the first wave of free agency are generally disappointed in two to three years. That certainly happened with the Bears after an aggressive shopping season in 2018.
What is a big free-agency signing you are expecting from the Bears next week? — @millerjackso
We don’t have a lot of history to draw from when speculating what Ryan Poles will do in the first wave of free agency with more cap room than he possibly needs. We can look back at last March and evaluate the roster and draw a few clues, but they’re just that — simply clues that lead to guesses. The Bears had at least initial interest in left tackle Terron Armstead a year ago before he signed with the Miami Dolphins. They made a big offer to defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi before that deal fell apart because of medical concerns.
I’ve said there is no reason to overthink where the Bears’ priorities should be this offseason. They need to do a better job of protecting quarterback Justin Fields, and they have to completely revamp the defensive line after failing to stop the run or pressure quarterbacks. So let’s keep the focus in the trenches. I could envision the Bears making an aggressive offer for Denver Broncos defensive tackle Dre’Mont Jones and also pursuing an offensive tackle, maybe Mike McGlinchey of the San Francisco 49ers or Jawaan Taylor of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Just guesses, though.
Did Ryan Poles talk up the potential of a megadeal (1st-round picks in 2024 and 2025) too much that he might have overplayed his hand? — @mattgaleawrites
For whom? If you’re not going to be happy unless the Bears get three first-round picks in a trade-down scenario, perhaps you have been set up for disappointment. Maybe that happens, maybe it doesn’t. But I think Poles has been aggressive in letting it be known the pick is for sale with the goal of maximizing a possible return and potentially having an agreement in place before free agency. Everyone knows the pick is on the table. It’s a matter of finding a team that believes it has to have a certain quarterback.
How much of a disadvantage are the Bears facing when it comes to attracting free agents? Would they have to offer more money to a player to come to a rebuilding team that went 3-14 than a contender? As a player, teams like Philadelphia, Buffalo, Kansas City would be far more attractive than the Bears. — Dave P., St. Joseph, Mich.
I’ve always said the first three factors when it comes to free agency are money, money and, yes, money. Do other factors come into play? No question. The relative strength of the team can shape decisions from time to time, and former Bears GM Ryan Pace admitted this was a bit of an obstacle in his first two years (2015 and ‘16). The city plays a role, too, and being in Chicago is a boost for the Bears. It’s an attractive destination for a lot of players. The coaching staff is a factor, and teams try to sell players on fit. Halas Hall is a top-notch facility, and the Bears will attempt to use that as a selling point.
A lot of work goes on behind the scenes, plenty of which would be classified as tampering. No, I am NOT saying the Bears are tampering to add players next week. In the past, I have heard stories of coaches having a cache of burner cellphones to contact players and sell them on free-agent opportunities. No joke. The league would hammer a team caught doing this kind of thing, but it has happened.
The Bears are in a position with cap space where the only players they will be outbid for are the ones for whom they feel the price has simply gone too high — and Poles has talked about having parameters. He wants to be draft-driven, so any splurges in free agency will be highly calculated.
I’m prepared to be underwhelmed with what the Bears do in free agency. I’m all good with that because I believe in Ryan Poles and that consistent winners are built via the draft. Am I misguided on this? — @mikebarbacovi
I don’t think there’s a move in free agency this year, with a limited supply of top talent available, that would be the difference between the Bears hunting a Super Bowl or not. I don’t know what would exceed your expectations. I think with the resources available — and the vast number of positions that must be filled — Poles will be aggressive in a calculated manner. Free agency is tricky; former GM Ryan Pace referred to it as “dangerous waters.” Teams that win in March rarely win much in January, and while that doesn’t make headlines during free agency, it’s a steady approach.
We’ll have a good idea how things are going by the middle of next week. Let’s face it: If Poles is planning to be super aggressive and make a couple of marquee additions, he wouldn’t want to telegraph that. Also, keep in mind that some quality players will be cut between now and May, providing the Bears opportunities to consider a slew of veterans.
Do you expect the Bears’ (potential) trade of the first pick to come before draft night? I know the NFL likes to have their made-for-TV draft events come off without a hitch. — @themaxconnor1
If the Bears waited until April 27 to trade the pick, it would add drama. That wouldn’t be a hitch — that would be a boon for the live, televised event. I imagine the Bears will have a trade in place before then, probably no later than mid-April and perhaps much sooner.
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