Are SF Giants a true contender? Plus more outstanding questions entering second half
Giants' playoff odds have doubled since Opening Day, but they have work to do to stay in the postseason race.
As the San Francisco Giants embark on the second half of their season, the answer will inevitably reveal itself: What is the true version of this team? Is it the one that reeled off 10 straight wins, the one that went 18-8 in June? Or is it something closer to the middling squad that didn’t own a winning record until Memorial Day weekend?
Farhan Zaidi, head of baseball operations, leans toward the former.
“I think (the first half) sort of validated our belief in spring training that this was a good team,” Zaidi said. “We’ve had our ups and downs health-wise and performance-wise, but I think we are a playoff team, a playoff-caliber team.”
The projection models back up Zaidi’s confidence.
They are much more bullish on the Giants’ postseason chances than they were on Opening Day. Both Baseball Prospectus (62.5%) and FanGraphs (58.4%) give them better than 50-50 odds after rating their chances between 20% and 40% entering the season. At 49-41, they sit 2½ games back of the NL West lead, in a virtual tie for the final wild card slot.
However, to stay in the playoff race, they will have to provide answers to a few outstanding questions.
Who is pitching and when?
The Giants have utilized openers more often than any other team in the majors this season, at times deploying up to six traditional starting pitchers in relief roles.
Zaidi indicated the Giants would like to return to a more traditional five-man rotation.
Manager Gabe Kapler, however, suggested bullpen games wouldn’t be going away for good. While Ross Stripling appears set to join Logan Webb and Alex Cobb in the rotation out of the break, the status of Anthony DeSclafani (fatigue) remains up in the air. It’s clear which role Alex Wood prefers (starting), but less so about the Giants’ preferences for his usage.
“We’ll do what helps us win the most games possible in the second half,” Kapler said. “It might be a rotation that’s a little bit more predictable and if that’s the case, we think the pitchers are doing a really good job and we want to see them go out there every fifth day. There’s also the possibility that we have a bullpen pitching staff construction that suggests we should start some games with some relievers.”
The Giants’ bullpen has been among the best in baseball — the very best, in fact, dating back to the start of May. Their relievers have logged the second-most innings of any group in the majors (378⅔), while posting the eighth-best ERA (3.80, 2.90 since May 1).
Their use of openers and bulk relievers has been effective, with an 11-3 record in those games.
But is it sustainable?
“Teams that I’ve been around that have really gotten on rolls, they’ve had that, where you’ve got five starters who are sort of feeding off of each other,” Zaidi said. “Hopefully we can move more in that direction.”
How much can the rookies be counted on?
The Giants have already gotten 2.0 Wins Above Replacement from 20 rookies this season.
However, almost all of it has been accumulated by two players: Patrick Bailey and Blake Sabol.
Other first-year players will be counted on heavily down the stretch. For now, the Giants will rely on Casey Schmitt and Brett Wisely to handle second base duties with Thairo Estrada still likely weeks away from returning from the injured list. It’s possible Keaton Winn or Tristan Beck fills one of their open rotation slots.
Schmitt, in particular, has cooled off after a red-hot start. Batted-ball data (a .375 batting average on balls in play and an average exit velocity under 90 mph) coupled with a measly 3.3% walk rate suggests there could be some room for regression from Bailey, too.
“I think particularly with young players, we’ve had young players come up and get really hot and get really cold,” Zaidi said. “I think for us to give them an environment that is consistent as possible gives them the best chance at success. … I know there’s been a lot of talk about the infield, we view it as an opportunity for Casey to start showing some offensive improvement. I think there have been some signs. I think the at-bats have been better lately.”
What kind of reinforcements are on the way?
Help in the second half can come in three forms:
1) Trade deadline acquisitions
2) A clean bill of health
3) Minor-league callups
The Giants expect to benefit through all three avenues.
“I think back to 2021 … when we acquired Kris Bryant,” Zaidi said. “He did a nice job for us and played well in the playoffs, but that first week of August, we got (Evan) Longoria back, and I think we got one or two other positions players, and then it got a little crowded. … I do think we want to have some awareness of that as we kind of think of potential moves.”
At Triple-A, top pitching prospect Kyle Harrison is waiting in the wings, though his timeline was delayed by a hamstring injury he suffered after his last start. Only a year removed from being drafted in the second round, fellow lefty Carson Whisenhunt impressed in the Futures Game, using his major-league-ready changeup to fan two batters, including baseball’s top prospect, Jackson Holliday. He’s made it to Double-A.
On the trade market, Zaidi indicated the Giants’ top priority would be aiding their middle infield situation. He sounded more satisfied with their starting pitching depth, perhaps buoyed by Harrison, but didn’t rule out a trade for a frontline starter — something every contender is after.
The Giants have put 21 players on the injured list this season, more than all but one other team in the majors (Yankees). They have nine guys currently sidelined but should begin to get them back in short order after the break.
In the bullpen, Luke Jackson (lower back strain) is closest, with John Brebbia (lat strain) not far behind. With Mitch Haniger (forearm fracture) still looking at an early September return, another right-handed outfield option could be Heliot Ramos (oblique strain), who has homered four times in six rehab games at Triple-A Sacramento.
The biggest question is what they will do up the middle until Estrada, their most valuable player by fWAR, is ready to return — and when that might be.