Erik Karlsson trade fallout: On San Jose’s suspect return, filling the void, and how the prospects are affected

San Jose Sharks general manager Mike Grier was put in a tough spot, but he showed patience when it came to trading superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson.

Karlsson, who wanted to play for a win-now team instead of the rebuilding Sharks, was shipped to the Pittsburgh Penguins on Sunday in a multi-player, three-team trade that took months to complete.

Coming back to the Sharks are forwards Mike Hoffman and Mikael Granlund and defenseman Jan Rutta, players who give the Sharks some added depth. In the case of Hoffman, who is entering the last year of his contract, the Sharks now have another possible chip to play with when next season’s trade deadline starts to approach.

“There were a few times maybe where we were starting to make progress (on a trade), something would happen and we’d take a step back and not be able to do it,” Grier said of the exhausting ordeal. “But I think it was necessary to have a little bit of patience and get a deal that we’re pretty happy with.”

While the NHL players coming to San Jose have some value, the biggest benefits from this trade to the Sharks won’t truly be felt for a couple of years.

The Sharks only retained $1.5 million of Karlsson’s onerous contract, which carries an average annual value of $11.5 million for each of the next four years. While the contracts of Hoffman, Granlund, and Rutta swallow up all of the $10 million in savings – and then some — this upcoming year, the Sharks will save $2.5 million in 2024-2025 and $10 million in each of the following two seasons, per PuckPedia.

That’s big for a Sharks team that figures to be coming out of its rebuild right around that time, with their top prospects gaining some necessary experience between now and then.

The Sharks also received Pittsburgh’s first-round pick next season, which is top 10 protected, likely giving them four picks in the first two rounds of next year’s draft.

Not a bad return, although some observers – quick to hand out trade grades Sunday on a deal only a few hours old – felt the NHL players the Sharks received will not be impactful enough in the short term. Fair enough. They’re all in their thirties and their best days are likely behind them. Any return for them in future trades might be minimal.

But a Karlsson trade was never totally going to be about those individuals. It was going to be about putting the Sharks in a better position to succeed in the long term. No one was thinking playoffs for San Jose next season — before or after a trade.

Grier was put in a difficult spot for the second straight year with another elite defenseman carrying trade restrictions wanting out of San Jose. So regardless of how Granlund, Hoffman, and Rutta play, Grier got something tangible back in the form of a first-rounder and tens of millions of dollars in future cap space.

Grier wished Karlsson well on Sunday as the three-time Norris Trophy winner goes off to chase a Stanley Cup with the Penguins. In San Jose, the plan is to do the same — a few years down the road.

WHO CAN FILL THE KARLSSON VOID?: The Sharks do not have anyone on their roster who can come close to providing the 101 points that Karlsson amassed last season. In fact, the eight defensemen who dressed for at least one Sharks game in 2022-23, and remain on the team, totaled just 69 points.

Karlsson had points on 43.35 percent of the Sharks’ 233 goals this past season, ran the top power-play unit, and averaged close to 26 minutes of ice time per game.

That’s a huge hole to fill, so more scoring has to come from the forwards. Hoffman and Granlund combined for 75 points last season and newcomer Anthony Duclair is expected to get top-line minutes. The Sharks could also use bounce-back seasons from Tomas Hertl, Fabian Zetterlund, and Oskar Lindblom.

“It’ll definitely be, I would say, more of a committee thing than relying so much on one guy to drive the offense,” Grier said. “At times, that was the case last year.”

WHAT HAPPENS TO THE KIDS?: As it stands right now, the Sharks have 12 forwards and seven defensemen on one-way contracts, perhaps not leaving a lot of room for waivers-exempt players such as forwards William Eklund and Thomas Bordeleau and defenseman Henry Thrun to make the 23-man roster out of training camp.

Eklund is best suited to play in a top-nine role but the additions of Duclair, Hoffman, and Filip Zadina, to go with Zetterlund, Alexander Barabanov, Kevin Labanc, and Jacob Peterson, make for a crowded winger group. If Granlund is used as a third-line center, for instance, and Nico Sturm is back on the fourth line, does that push out a Bordeleau?

On defense, Thrun will likely have to beat out Jacob McDonald, Radim Simek, or Nikolai Knyzhov for an opening night roster spot. The offensive-minded Leon Gawanke will also be in that mix.

Whatever the coaching staff decides, Grier said if the younger guys have good camps, the Sharks will make room for them on the 23-man roster.

“These guys, they have to take the job,” Grier said. “We’re not going to give them a job because of their prospect pedigree or where they’re drafted. They need to come to camp and take the job away from the veteran, and the veteran’s got to do his best to hold on to the job. That’s what camp will be about.

“They’ll still be plenty of opportunity for the guys to earn a place on the team and it’s going to be up to them to show that they’re ready to take the opportunity.”