Projecting the (Karlsson-less) Sharks’ 23-man roster: Better team or better lottery odds?

The San Jose Sharks have added seven new forwards with NHL experience since the end of last season. They’ve also changed the look of their defense corps and didn’t re-sign the goalie who appeared in 91 games over the past two years.

So, are they any better, or did they give themselves a better chance at winning next year’s draft lottery?

Certainly, the Sharks are a long shot to make the playoffs, given the question marks they have on defense and in net. The forward group is deeper and has a chance to be more dynamic than it was in 2022-23, although it could be a few more years before another prolific goal-scorer like Timo Meier is on the roster.

Right now, the only expectation Sharks general manager Mike Grier has for his group is to compete hard and build on the culture he feels they started to establish last season, even as they finished with a 22-44-16 record for 60 points — fourth-fewest in the NHL — with a 9.5 percent chance of winning the draft lottery.

The team with the worst record has a 25.5 percent chance of winning the lottery, as most Sharks fans became acutely aware of a few months ago.

“My expectation for the group is the same as it’s always been,” Grier said Sunday after he traded Erik Karlsson to the Pittsburgh Penguins. “(Coach David Quinn) wants to win, (owner) Hasso (Plattner) wants to win, I want to win, the players want to win.

“So I think the expectation is that these guys come in and compete hard and play hard every day and try and win hockey games, and we’ll see what happens.”

Here’s a look at who could crack the Sharks’ 23-man roster to start the season on Oct. 12.

FORWARDS

LOCKS (12): Alexander Barabanov, Logan Couture, Anthony Duclair, Mikael Granlund, Tomas Hertl, Mike Hoffman, Kevin Labanc, Oskar Lindblom, Luke Kunin, Nico Sturm, Filip Zadina, Fabian Zetterlund.

IN THE MIX (6): Thomas Bordeleau, Ryan Carpenter, William Eklund, Jacob Peterson, Adam Raska, Givani Smith.

LONGSHOTS (5): Danil Gushchin, Tristen Robins, Scott Sabourin, Nathan Todd, Ozzy Wiesblatt.

ANALYSIS: Despite the additions, Grier said there’s still an avenue for players on entry-level contracts to make the team out of camp. They just have to beat out a veteran player to do it and force the front office’s hand.

That won’t be easy, even if San Jose keeps 14 forwards for the start of the regular season. The additions of Duclair, Granlund, Hoffman, and Zadina, plus holdovers Barabanov, Couture, Hertl, Kunin, and Sturm, make for a crowded top nine. Eklund and Bordeleau would gladly take fourth-line roles if meant staying in the NHL, but Zetterlund, Lindblom, Peterson, Carpenter, and Smith are also in the mix for those spots.

Beyond that, questions persist. Where does Labanc fit in, and who will be the Sharks’ fourth-line center?

Labanc had 33 points in 72 games last season. At his best, he can play top-six minutes. But there were also times last season, and earlier in his career, when he played on the fourth line or sat out altogether. Labanc’s contract carries a hard-to-trade cap hit of $4.725 million, and the Sharks would only get $1.15 million in cap relief if he were to be sent down. Such an unorthodox move would seem far-fetched.

Carpenter has played as a fourth-line center in the NHL before and might be best suited for that role right now ahead of the skilled Bordeleau, although the Michigan product will be given ample opportunity to showcase himself in exhibition games. There’s also a chance Granlund becomes the third-line center and Sturm drops down to the fourth line, opening up a top-nine spot.

Our guess is that if everyone is healthy, the 12 locks listed above, plus Eklund and Peterson make the team, while Bordeleau, Raska, Carpenter, and Smith start the year in the AHL.

DEFENSEMEN

LOCKS (7): Matthew Benning, Kyle Burroughs, Mario Ferraro, Nikolai Knyzhov, Jan Rutta, Radim Simek, Marc-Edouard Vlasic.

IN THE MIX (4): Jacob MacDonald, Henry Thrun, Nick Cicek, Leon Gawanke.

LONGSHOTS (3): Shakir Mukhamadullin, Nikita Okhotiuk, Valtteri Pulli.

ANALYSIS: Grier’s stance on rookies potentially pushing out veterans holds true for defensemen as well, but with likely only seven roster spots available, what bubble player can push out which veteran?

While Mukhamadullin, Okhotiuk, and Pulli likely need more time in the AHL, Thrun, from all appearances, is more NHL-ready. Can he supplant Simek, who, historically, has had trouble staying healthy? There also seems to be some question as to whether Rutta, coming off core muscle surgery in April, will be fully healthy for the start of training camp, potentially opening the door for someone else.

Burroughs is among a cadre of defensemen who do not qualify as offensive-minded enough to replace Karlsson, but he adds a certain element to the back end that’s perhaps been missing since Jacob Middleton was traded in March 2022.

The Sharks are looking forward to seeing what a healthy Knyzhov can do with a full offseason of preparation under his belt. Ferraro projects to be a heavy-minute guy again this season after an uneven 2022-23 when he might have been guilty of trying to do too much at times. Now with Karlsson gone, Grier said it’s especially important for guys to not change what’s in their DNA.

“Sometimes players can fall into that trap where they try and do too much and they change their game,” Grier said, “and it becomes something that is not beneficial to them or the team.”

If every defenseman listed as a lock is healthy and available, the easiest thing for the Sharks to do is start Thrun in the AHL. But injuries happen, and San Jose used 11 defensemen last season, so Thrun, and perhaps other young defensemen, will likely get a chance with the big club at some point.

GOALIES

LOCKS (2): Mackenzie Blackwood, Kaapo Kahkonen.

LONGSHOTS (3): Eetu Makiniemi, Magnus Chrona, Georgi Romanov.

ANALYSIS: Blackwood replaces James Reimer, who went 31-38-18 over the last two seasons in San Jose, and will form the Sharks’ goalie tandem with Kahkonen, assuming they can both stay healthy. Can one nudge ahead of the other throughout camp and preseason games and become a clear No. 1? Chances are the workload will be distributed fairly evenly like it was last season.

Unlike last season, though, the Sharks don’t have a safety net like Aaron Dell to protect one of their young goalies should Blackwood or Kahkonen get hurt. Makiniemi projects to be the Barracuda’s No. 1 goalie and logic suggests he’ll get the call to the NHL should anything happen to the top two netminders.

Training camp, and the preceding rookie camp in Las Vegas, could help determine whether Chrona or Romanov stay in San Jose with the Barracuda, and who goes to the ECHL team in Wichita.