Pac-12 bowl projections: Six teams alive for New Year’s Six berths as playoff rankings loom
Helpful reminders on the postseason selection process before we plunge into the latest Pac-12 bowl forecast:
— The Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl will host the College Football Playoff semifinals, leaving the Pac-12 champion to participate in the Fiesta, Peach or Cotton bowls unless it qualifies for the CFP.
— The Pac-12 is contractually tied to seven games this season: the New Year’s Six, Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun, LA and Independence bowls. If there are more eligible teams than available spots, the conference will attempt to secure invitations to other bowls with vacancies.
We are one week from the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings. Starting on Halloween, and for the ensuing four Tuesdays, the selection committee will reveal its top-25 on ESPN.
The final rankings — the only rankings that matter — will be unveiled Dec. 3.
The rankings are essential not only for determining the CFP semifinalists but also participants in the other four New Year’s Six games.
For the first time in years, the Pac-12 has a slew of candidates for the latter.
As things stand:
— Four teams have fewer than two losses and are alive in the playoff race: Washington, Oregon, Oregon State and Utah.
— Two more teams have fewer than three losses and are in the candidate pool for New Year’s Six bids: USC and UCLA.
The situation will change this week in at least one regard: The Oregon-Utah loser will have two losses and be unofficially eliminated from the playoff chase. (No team with two defeats has qualified for the event in the CFP’s nine-year history.)
But barring upsets Saturday, half the conference will be alive for New Year’s Six berths and have plenty at stake when the selection committee’s first rankings are released next week.
To the projections …
College Football Playoff/Rose Bowl
Team: Washington (7-0)
Home games remaining (two): Utah, WSU
Road games remaining (three): Stanford, USC, Oregon State
Comment: Our current projections have the Huskies as the No. 3 seed behind Georgia and the Big Ten champion. With the top-seeded Bulldogs likely to play in the Sugar Bowl (because of proximity to campus), Washington would meet Ohio State or Michigan in Pasadena.
New Year’s Six/Fiesta Bowl
Team: Oregon (6-1)
Home games (three): Cal, USC, Oregon State
Road games (two): Utah, Arizona State
Comment: Noteworthy that there are six at-large spots available in the New Year’s Six via the Peach, Cotton and Fiesta Bowls. However, one is reserved for the top-ranked Group of Five team (the frontrunner: Air Force). So the Ducks could end up in Dallas or Atlanta, but Phoenix seems most likely.
Alamo Bowl
Team: Oregon State (6-1)
Home games (two): Stanford, Washington
Road games (three): Arizona, Colorado, Oregon
Comment: A small thing with the potential to become a big thing: OSU did not face a Power Five opponent in non-conference play. That would be a topic for discussion with the selection committee if the Beavers are in position for a ranking that places them in the New Year’s Six pool.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Utah (6-1)
Home games (three): Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado
Road games (two): Washington, Arizona
Comment: Although it’s not reflected here, our ceiling for Utah’s bowl outlook has been raised … all the way to the College Football Playoff. With the emergence of safety Sione Vaki as an offensive playmaker, bet against Kyle Whittingham and Co. at your risk.
Holiday Bowl
Team: USC (6-2)
Home games (two): Washington, UCLA
Road games (two): Cal, Oregon
Comment: The Holiday Bowl’s presumed aversion to UCLA — the Bruins backed out of the 2021 game, leading to a lawsuit — could end up being USC’s salvation if the trojans slide into the middle of the pack.
Sun Bowl
Team: Arizona (4-3)
Home games (three): Oregon State, UCLA, Utah
Road games (two): Colorado, Arizona State
Comment: Like many teams that exceed expectations and end postseason droughts, the Wildcats would be a coveted participant, at least for the second-tier games. The high-end bowls that lean into TV ratings prefer participants with bigger brands and larger media markets.
LA Bowl
Team: UCLA (5-2)
Home games (three): Colorado, Arizona State, Cal
Road games (two): Arizona, USC
Comment: If the Bruins can’t climb into the Alamo or Las Vegas Bowls, they might slide because of the Holiday’s presumed aversion and the Sun’s reticence over inviting a repeat participant. UCLA lost to Pittsburgh in El Paso last year.)
At-large bowl
Team: Washington State (4-3)
Home games (two): Stanford, Colorado
Road games (three): Arizona State, Cal, Washington
Comment: The bowl math gets exponentially more challenging for the Cougars with each passing week. Lose Saturday at Arizona State, and it’s panic time.
Non-qualifier
Team: Colorado (4-3)
Home games (two): Oregon State, Arizona
Road games (three): UCLA, WSU, Utah
Comment: The Buffaloes finished one game short of a bowl berth in three consecutive seasons (2017-19). We strongly suspect that frustrating history will repeat this fall, despite the obvious progress under Deion Sanders. All five remaining games will be challenging, and CU needs two wins.
Non-qualifier
Team: Cal (3-4)
Home games (two): USC, WSU
Road games (three): Oregon, Stanford, UCLA
Comment: For the first time in weeks, we considered moving the Bears into the pool of eligible teams. Why? Because their prospects for victory against USC have improved immeasurably.
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford (2-5)
Home games (three): Washington, Cal, Notre Dame
Road games (two): WSU, Oregon State
Comment: Forget this year and next. If coach Troy Taylor gets the Cardinal into the postseason in 2025, he should be awarded a lifetime contract.
Ineligible
Team: Arizona State (1-6)
Home games (three): WSU, Oregon, Arizona
Road games (two): Utah, UCLA
Comment: If bowl bids depended on effort instead of results, the Sun Devils would have already clinched a berth.
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