Poll: Immigration fight with Trump boosts Gov. Newsom’s ratings
California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s standoff with President Donald Trump on the issue of immigration raids seems to have boosted his favorability across the state, according to a new poll from UC Irvine’s School of Social Ecology, though there is less enthusiasm for the direction of the state.
A month ago, nearly 6 in 10 Californians disapproved of the governor’s job performance. His approval ratings looked nearly as bad as those for Trump.
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By late June, nearly 6 in 10 Californians rated Newsom as “somewhat favorable” or “strongly favorable,” according to the latest UCI-OC poll, which in a first for the program, recently surveyed Californians across the state and not just in Orange County.
Trump, meanwhile, saw a moderate boost in favorability among Californian Republicans, but his support among Californian independents dropped by a commensurate amount.
The poll data came from three statewide online surveys, two from late May and early June, plus another in late June, after the politicians’ immigration showdown.
The surveys from late May and early June asked people about the politicians’ job performance, while the survey in late June asked them about their overall impressions of the figures.
“It’s important to recognize there are two different questions being asked about Newsom because of how we did our polling,” Jon Gould, dean of the UCI School of Social Ecology, said. Nevertheless, Gould says he is sure that June was a good month for Newsom’s favorability among Californians.
“There is no mistaking that Newsom’s battle with Trump has been good for his standing in the state, certainly among Democrats and also with independents,” Gould said.
“That comes immediately after his contretemps with the president, which does lead one to think that there is political value here for Newsom in being perceived as standing up to the president,” Gould added.
June was a flashpoint in the ever-tenuous relationship between the governor and president.
From June 6-22, enforcement teams arrested 1,618 immigrants for deportation in Los Angeles and surrounding regions of Southern California, according to Department of Homeland Security numbers reported by the Los Angeles Times.
The administration’s ongoing crackdown on immigration prompted protests in downtown L.A. that led to Trump summoning the California National Guard to the area. A small number were also later stationed at the federal building in Santa Ana.
On June 9, the governor sued Trump for nationalizing the California National Guard against his wishes.
Later in the month, after surveys were collected for this poll, Newsom also sued Fox News over defamation claims related to how the network reported on phone calls he had with the president about the raids.
Democratic political strategist Orrin Evans said Californians are recognizing Newsom for his stance against the president.
“Americans are horrified by the forced separation of mothers from their children and brutal beatings of civilians that are being carried out daily by ICE agents and masked thugs on behalf of Donald Trump,” he said. “Any elected official who stands up against this domestic terrorism will be viewed favorably.”
Newsom’s recent ratings boost stands out in contrast to other data collected in the poll that suggest 2 in 3 Californians believe the state is “on the wrong, not right, track.”
“One way to interpret this may be that they think Newsom’s heart’s in the right place and they like what he’s doing as against Trump, but they are not satisfied with accomplishments in the state of California at this moment,” Gould said.
GOP strategist Emily Sissell suspects that Newsom’s benefiting from a “temporary bump” in popularity while the GOP reconfigures its policies and messaging on immigration.
“The message has to be clear that you can’t come here illegally anymore, but the reality is California’s ag and hospitality industries are the largest in the country, and they rely heavily on (immigrant) labor,” she said. “That’s why you’re already seeing the shift in tone where Republicans are still tough on immigration. We have credibility on that, but we’re also acknowledging that we need to be pragmatic in our approach and solutions going forward.”
About two weeks ago, Trump floated the idea of exempting farms and hotels from immigration raids before quickly walking it back. This week, he said the administration is working on a “temporary pass” for immigrants in certain industries.
The poll also asked respondents about state funding priorities.
Democrats and independents named housing and health care as top priorities.
For Republicans, the top-mentioned funding issue was law enforcement and public safety, followed by health care and housing.
Republicans’ interest in health care and housing could present a challenge as Republican representatives at the federal level intend to make cuts to Medicaid (Medi-Cal, in California) as part of Trump’s sweeping budget bill.
A couple California Republicans in the House of Representatives, David Valadao of the Central Valley and Young Kim of Orange County, recently reiterated their concerns about the proposed changes to Medicaid in Trump’s bill, approved by the Senate on Tuesday and now up to the House for a vote.
The two voted for an earlier version of the bill that, while still including changes to Medicaid, were not as sharp as the cuts included in the Senate’s version.
Both have said they would support certain reforms, but could not back cuts to coverage for vulnerable populations or those that would threaten hospitals, nursing homes and safety net providers. A spokesperson for Kim said they were still reviewing the changes the Senate made when reached for comment Tuesday.
Should it pass, the bill could result in a loss of Medi-Cal coverage for up to 3.4 million Californians, according to Newsom.
Valadao and Kim represent districts with among the highest Medi-Cal enrollment rates.
Evans said that California Democrats can win over voters by calling out Republicans for voting on Medicaid opposite of what they’ve said they’d do and “telling the stories of Californians whose health care has been stripped away.”
“Those stories will play a central role in the 2026 midterms,” he said.
Sissell said that California Republicans must be vocal about standing for Medicaid funding and vote “based on who their constituents are because that’s who they’re serving, whether or not they have an ‘R’ next to their name.”
“California Republicans at the federal level understand that health care isn’t a one-size-fits-all issue,” she said, “and our members in purple districts have been very clear from early in spring that if federal funding puts Medi-Cal access at risk or rural hospitals at risk they’re not going to be silent on this issue.”