Walters: Newsom’s congressional redistricting drive faces political and legal hurdles

Gov. Gavin Newsom justifies — or rationalizes — his drive for a mid-decade reconfiguration of California’s congressional districts as a heroic mission to thwart President Donald Trump’s power grab.

Newsom, who seems to be edging ever closer to a 2028 presidential campaign, proposes to alter the state’s 53 districts to shift five or six seats now held by Republicans into Democratic hands during the 2026 elections.

If successful, it would neutralize efforts by Texas Republicans to gerrymander its districts to gain a similar number of seats. Republicans hold a paper-thin majority in the House of Representatives and Trump has sought mid-decade redistricting in Texas and other red states to block Democrats from gaining control in 2026.

The Texas situation is in limbo because Democratic legislators have fled the state, but how long they can hold out is unclear. Newsom played host to some Texas Democrats last week as he talked up action in California, which would require voter approval in a November special election.

“I think the voters will approve it. I think the voters understand what’s at stake,” Newsom said on Friday. “We live in the most un-Trump state in America.”

Well maybe, but Democratic gerrymandering of California’s districts will not be as easy as Republican gerrymandering in Texas.

In Texas, as in most states, the legislature controls redistricting. Under its current maps, enacted after the 2020 census, Republicans hold 25 of its 38 seats, Democrats have 12 and there’s one vacancy.

Ironically, Democrats fare much better in Texas than Republicans do in California, where the GOP holds just nine of the state’s 53 seats under maps drawn by an independent commission. Newsom, backed by Democratic legislative leaders, wants voters to set aside the commission’s maps for as many as three election cycles and approve a new plan with more Democratic districts.

If Texas moves forward, the proposal, which has not been shared publicly, would require the California Legislature to place it on the ballot after lawmakers return next week from summer recess — and just four days to act under current law. However, the Legislature has often exempted itself from ballot measure deadlines, so one must assume that the proposal will make the ballot.

That’s the easy part for Newsom. He would still have to persuade voters who are no more than lukewarm despite the unpopularity of Trump in California, according to private polling.

Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who championed the creation of an independent redistricting commission, says he’ll oppose Newsom’s plan and Charles Munger Jr., a wealthy scientist who bankrolled two ballot measures to create the commission, says he’ll support an opposition campaign.

Given the stakes, Trump and Republicans would probably flood the state with opposition campaign money while Democrats would do the same, with even more money coming from labor unions and other Democratic allies.

Newsom also faces the possibility of legal battles, such as issues over what data he uses to draw the new districts.

The state commission used numbers from the 2020 census, which pegged California’s population at 39,538,223. The latest estimate from the Department of Finance’s demographic unit is 39,529,000, a tiny difference. However, there are also differences within the state, according to the state’s estimates, with coastal counties tending to lose population while inland counties gaining.

Districts must be equal in population — within tight tolerances — but also must not disenfranchise protected ethnic groups, according to federal law.

These factors all could be bases for litigation, perhaps including intervention by Trump’s Department of Justice. After the 2000 census, the threat of federal intervention played a big role in the California Legislature’s previous redistricting effort, blocking Democrats from drawing partisan maps.

Prolonged litigation could block Newsom’s plan from taking effect in 2026 even if he gains voter approval this year. This game is just beginning.

Dan Walters is a CalMatters columnist.