Pac-12 bowl projections: Oregon returns to the CFP as seven legacy schools become eligible for postseason play
The Pac-12’s postseason marriage of convenience that began last summer will continue in 2025 with the 12 legacy schools, despite their scattered existence, tied to the conference’s traditional bowl partners for one final year.
Teams that are bowl-eligible (i.e., at least six wins) and don’t qualify for the College Football Playoff will participate in the Alamo Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl, Holiday Bowl and so forth — you know the drill.
The selection process used last season is intact, as well: Overall record, not conference record, will determine which teams go where.
There’s only one material change this season. The Independence Bowl is not part of the Pac-12 lineup based on a contractual arrangement made long before the conference imploded.
Our projections are below.
Non-qualifiers (five): Arizona, Colorado, Stanford, UCLA and Washington State
College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (at-large selection)
Comment: We don’t see the Ducks winning the Big Ten again, not with a new quarterback (Dante Moore) and the loss of 10 NFL Draft picks. But they should finish in the top three or four of the Big Ten and be well-positioned for an at-large berth. And if the Ducks secure a seed in the sweet spot (No. 5-8), a home game awaits in the opening round.
Alamo Bowl
Team: Utah
Comment: The Utes would jump into the CFP if they win the Big 12 or compile a resume deemed worthy of an at-large bid. Either scenario is possible but, in our view, not likely. That said, the bounce-back year should produce at least nine wins and generate enough momentum to entice Alamo officials to invite Utah for the first time since 2019.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Arizona State
Comment: Nuance alert: Projecting the Sun Devils for Las Vegas doesn’t reflect a negative view of the program. Instead, it’s an acknowledgment that margins are ultra slim in a conference with as much parity as the Big 12. Three or four plays over the course of months can account for the difference between reaching and missing the CFP. Will they all break right for ASU once again? We aren’t convinced.
Holiday Bowl
Team: Oregon State
Comment: Don’t be surprised if the Beavers end up playing in Las Vegas. Their personnel (both returning and incoming), combined with a manageable schedule, could generate enough victories to catapult Oregon State over the legacy teams in the Big 12, Big Ten and ACC. After all, Washington State made the Holiday Bowl last year with eight wins.
Sun Bowl
Team: USC
Comment: Tough to see a middle ground with the Trojans. Either they collect nine or 10 wins and are a coveted team on the bowl circuit — in that case, the Alamo would come into play — or they have a disappointing season and become teama non grata for the top-tier bowls. We’ll lean toward the latter outcome until there’s reason to believe otherwise.
LA Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: Our initial swing through the bowl projections resulted in Washington heading to the Sun Bowl, but the Hotline’s crack research staff immediately flashed an alert: The Huskies made the trek to El Paso last year, and neither bowl or school wants any part of a return engagement. If UW finishes with seven or eight wins, as we expect, the LA Bowl is a distinct possibility.
ESPN bowl
Team: Cal
Comment: Good chance the Pac-12 legacy schools produce more eligible teams than there are spots available in the affiliated bowls. In that case, ESPN would arrange for an invitation to the Gasparilla, First Responders or Armed Forces Bowls. (Others are possible, depending on vacancies.) The Bears, in their ongoing fair-to-middling existence — they went to the Independence Bowl two years ago — are a likely candidate for that role.
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