49ers’ 5 keys to winning in Houston: Keep up McCaffrey’s Texas-sized workload
HOUSTON – Apologies to data analysts and numbers crunchers but one of Stanford’s most distinguished alumni has something to say.
“You can look at stats all you want and stats tell a story,” 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey said, “but they don’t tell the whole story.”
The 49ers (5-2) are writing a unique tale this season, serving up plot twists outside logical numbers. The next chapter will unfold against the Texans (2-4) on Sunday (10 a.m. PT kickoff).
It’s OK if you’ve lost count amid this season’s storylines: Too many injuries to stars, too many rookies, no 30-point games, and not enough yards per carry from McCaffrey, even though he has more scrimmage yards than any of the 1,695 other players on NFL rosters.
“Each week, each play has a life of its own,” added McCaffrey, Stanford’s lifeblood from 2014-16. “Everybody wants the run game to work, they want the pass game to work, they want to score touchdowns. That’s been true since the beginning of time. There’s definitely a sense of urgency but there’s always been, and when things don’t go well, you harp on it more.”
Here are five ways the 49ers (5-2) can beat the Texans (2-4) at NRG Stadium:
1. MORE McCAFFREY
Why divert this story in another direction when everyone knows McCaffrey is approaching the midway point of an MVP-caliber season. The habitual 49ers will keep feeding him the ball.
Their rushing game broke out of its early-season slump last game by audibling to a power scheme, with McCaffrey racing between the tackles for 129 yards and two touchdowns in a 20-10 win over Atlanta. Mix in another 72 receiving yards – including a third-and-long conversion to set up his second score – and the 49ers aren’t apologizing for his over-usage, not when they’re without Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk.
Houston’s defense, ranked first in scoring, presents a more difficult challenge and won’t be as susceptible to the power scheme and explosive runs. But with left tackle Trent Williams anchoring the offensive line and tight end George Kittle back in the fray for a second straight game, don’t expect McCaffrey to retreat from the spotlight.
“That’ll be their main focus and their main game plan, and rightfully so,” Texans coach DeMeco Ryans said. “Because he’s such a dynamic player, he changes the game for them offensively. Not just what he does but where he aligns.”
McCaffrey’s played 84% of the offensive snaps, and while he’s excused from Wednesday practices for recover, he’s constantly recalibrating a body that was waylaid by Achilles and knee issues last year. “It’s like the Formula One strategy of putting the car in the garage and figuring out what’s going on,” he said.
2. BLOCK THE EDGE
As McCaffrey noted, the 49ers have the No. 1 passing attack in the NFL. Mac Jones will make his fourth straight start in place of Brock Purdy (toe), and he’ll again be unable to target Ricky Pearsall a fourth straight game.
Coming after Jones will be the NFL’s fifth-ranked pass defense and an overall unit that’s the hardest to score against. Left tackle Trent Williams will match up often against former offseason sparring partner Danielle Hunter while right tackle Colton McKivitz opposes Will Anderson, Jones’ former Alabama teammate and the 2023 draft’s No. 3 pick. Hunter and Anderson each have four sacks, with Anderson producing a strip-sack fumble recovery for a touchdown in Monday’s loss at Seattle.
The 49ers also must look out for safety Jalen Pitre as well as linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, who got his start on the Niners. “They all go hard, they play with a certain style and are one of the best, if not tied for the best, D-Lines we’ve seen,” said coach Kyle Shanahan, who first became an NFL playcaller as the 2008 Houston Texans offensive coordinator.
Kittle is coming off his first career game without a catch and he may have to help block, but then again, that’s why Luke Farrell commanded a steep contract in free agency.
The NFL again is recognizing National Tight Ends Day, so Kittle needs to leak out and join McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings and Kendrick Bourne in Jones’ crosshairs.
3. MYKEL’S BREAKOUT GAME
Mykel Williams, the 49ers’ top draft pick, is now their No. 1 defensive end with Bryce Huff (hamstring) joining Nick Bosa (knee) and Yetur Gross-Matos (hamstring) on the sidelines. As much as Williams enjoys moving from the edge to the “quickness” of playing inside on pass downs, the 49ers have a surplus of interior linemen and need Williams to show up as an outside rusher more than ever.
But he knows he can replicate Huff’s speed or play beyond his means. “The temptation is real, because you want to make plays, but you have to play within the scheme and let the plays come to you,” said Williams, who has one sack. (Defensive end Sam Okuayinonu and nickel back Upton Stout also have one each to account for the 49ers’ total outside of Huff and Bosa.)
As Bosa recovers from season-ending knee reconstruction, he’s returned to the 49ers’ facility and Williams is again seizing on his advice. “I go to the training room and chop it up, talk about what he’s seeing on the tape,” Williams said. “He’s still giving me pointers. I’m still leaning on him.”
If Williams isn’t matching up with rookie left tackle Aireontae Ersery or veteran right tackle Tytus Howard, the 49ers could pit him against 11th-year left guard Laken Tomlinson, who played for the 49ers from 2017-21 and spent the following two years on Robert Saleh’s Jets.
4. ‘EVERYONE CAN HATE YOU’
Saleh is seven games into reprising his role as the 49ers defensive coordinator. How on this NFL earth did his unit allow only 10 points last game while Fred Warner cheered from a suite with a just-repaired ankle?
“Good players,” Saleh said. “I know it’s a young group, but they’re all excited. … There’s always an opportunity for somebody to step into the shoes that have been there for a while.”
Tatum Bethune stepped into Warner’s middle linebacker role, delivered 10 tackles against the Falcons and now makes his encore start.
“You can’t take a deep breath. You’ve got to step on the gas and keep doing it over and over and over again,” Saleh said. “This league is a proving ground week-in and week-out. As much as they love you this week, everyone can hate you next week.”
As he did last week, Bethune did extra-credit homework studying at safety Malik Mustapha’s house. Bethune also is enjoying his linebacker pairing with linebacker Dee Winters, saying, “We’re like brothers and it reminds me of college.”
5. DON’T OVERLOOK TEXANS
Houston will be without wide receiver Nico Collins and Christian Kirk. That’s good for the 49ers. But it’s only good if they don’t let unheralded backups seize their opportunities to make plays, something the 49ers failed to do two weeks ago in Tampa Bay where two receivers scored their first career touchdowns (credit: Baker Mayfield) in place of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka.
C.J. Stroud looked helpless Monday night without Collins and Kirk. Tight end Dalton Schultz will be Stroud’s go-to guy, so the 49ers’ linebackers and safeties better not lose track of him. But Stroud shouldn’t be shy in trying to find rookie receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. After all, the 49ers defense has gone without an interception in an NFL-record 14 consecutive games. Deommodore Lenoir (quadriceps bruise), Renardo Green (toe) and Stout (ankle) are not at optimal health.
The artificial turf will make for a fast track, but the 49ers are 3-0 on non-grass surfaces this season. If they win Sunday, they’ll match their overall win total from last season (6-11) and they’ll be alone atop the NFC West, seeing how the Rams (5-2) and Seahawks (5-2) are both on byes.