Pac-12 power rankings for Week 10: Boise State on top, San Diego State rises as new era creates opportunity, pressure and coaching changes
Welcome to a new feature on the Hotline — an assessment of the eight teams in the rebuilt Pac-12 as if they were competing in the conference this season. We’ll even recognize one lucky team as the regular-season champion. The power rankings will be published each Sunday throughout the regular season.
(Here are last week’s rankings.)
The most significant off-the-field news for a conference that doesn’t yet exist has unfolded in the courtroom, where the Pac-12 has successfully pulled the Mountain West into a lengthy, costly lawsuit over $55 million in poaching penalties.
A second development, not quite as costly, is worth monitoring: turnover at the head coaching level.
Colorado State became the second member of the rebuilt Pac-12 to initiate an in-season change. The Rams dismissed Jay Norvell last weekend, a mere seven days after Oregon State axed Trent Bray.
At least two of the schools competing next fall will have first-year coaches, and three more will have second-year leaders: Fresno State’s Matt Entz, Utah State’s Bronco Mendenhall and Washington State’s Jimmy Rogers.
That’s five of eight.
The other three coaches, barring changes, will be San Diego State’s Sean Lewis (third season), Boise State’s Spencer Danielson (fourth) and Texas State’s G.J. Kinne (fourth).
The specifics differ from campus to campus but the turnover follows the same fundamental framework: The urgency to take advantage of the new era in college football.
Or as Colorado State athletic director John Weber said upon firing Norvell:
“As we prepare to join the Pac-12 Conference next year, we need to position our program to compete at the highest level. While we’ve seen progress, a change in leadership is necessary to achieve the sustained excellence our program requires.
“We are continuing to invest and work hard to ensure that the football program and the next head coach have the resources needed to capitalize on this historic opportunity.”
That “historic opportunity” is rooted in a new conference and new postseason format that are interconnected.
The first year of the rebuilt Pac-12 will coincide with the third year of the expanded College Football Playoff. Win the former, and there’s a path to the latter.
The top-ranked champion from outside the power conferences possesses an automatic bid to the playoff — and that will remain the case if the event expands to 16, 24 or 28 teams.
Given the makeup of the new Pac-12, which is lean and mean by design, any team that emerges with a conference title and fewer than three losses will be in contention for that CFP berth.
(More often than not, the stoutest competition will come from the American.)
Because the value of a playoff appearance is incalculable — it’s brand exposure for both athletics and the university writ large — school presidents and athletic directors are desperate to position their programs for maximum success when the reconstructed Pac-12 comes online next summer.
We don’t expect additional terminations. The six sitting head coaches are either too new or entrenched through success.
But the coaching changes at the power conference level this winter could be unprecedented, with each vacancy creating a cascading effect through the FBS.
Don’t be surprised if Colorado State and Oregon State aren’t the only members of the new Pac-12 with jobs to fill come December.
And for each school in the market for a new coach, the pressure to get the hire right will be greater than ever.
To the power rankings …
1. Boise State (6-2)
Result: won at Nevada 24-3
Next up: vs. Fresno State (12:30 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: The Broncos remain in the race for the College Football Playoff (barely) but must win out and get immense help from chaos in the American. Just as the close loss at Oregon served as the cornerstone of their playoff-worthy resume last year, the loss at South Florida creates a giant stain this season. If the loss totals are equal, Boise State won’t earn the spot over the Bulls, Memphis or Tulane. (Previous: 1)
2. San Diego State (6-1)
Result: won at Fresno State 23-0
Next up: vs. Wyoming (4 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: This looks like a Rocky Long team with the bruising running game and stellar defense. SDSU has recorded three shutouts (Stony Brook, Cal and Fresno State) and held a fourth opponent (Northern Illinois) to three points. All in all, the Aztecs are allowing fewer points per game (10.4) than any team not named Ohio State. (Previous: 3)
3. Washington State (4-4)
Result: beat Toledo 28-7
Next up: at Oregon State (4:30 p.m. on CSB)
Comment: The Hotline isn’t prepared to declare the Cougars a lock for the postseason, but that day is fast approaching. We view the trip to James Madison as a likely loss, meaning WSU must win two of three against Oregon State (twice) and Louisiana Tech which, like Toledo, will be making the long trip to Pullman — and the Cougars will have two weeks to prepare. (Previous: 2)
4. Fresno State (5-3)
Result: lost to San Diego State 23-0
Next up: at Boise State (12:30 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: Not three weeks ago, the Bulldogs were 5-1 and eyeing a berth in the Mountain West title game. After losses to Colorado State and SDSU — each was gruesome in its own way — Fresno State needs a minor miracle to play for the conference championship. (Previous: 4)
5. Texas State (3-4)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. James Madison (Tuesday at 5 p.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: Fans of the rebuilt Pac-12 will have a great chance to watch the Bobcats in action on Tuesday, when they face Sun Belt powerhouse JMU. We expected the duel in San Marcos to be a big game for both teams, but alas, Texas State is winless in conference play. (Previous: 5)
6. Utah State (4-4)
Result: lost at New Mexico 33-14
Next up: idle
Comment: The Aggies are sixth in the Hotline power rankings only because there are teams more deserving of the bottom spots, but that gap is closing after Utah State took its third loss in four games. The bowl math has turned daunting, as well, with two victories needed and only one easy win (Nevada) left on the schedule. (Previous: 6)
7. Oregon State (1-7)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. Washington State (4:30 p.m. on CBS)
Comment: Some losses look better than they did at the time (Houston, Wake Forest) while others look worse (Cal, Fresno State). But toss everything into a cauldron and the end result is a rotten stew of the Beavers own making. (Previous: 8)
8. Colorado State (2-6)
Result: lost at Wyoming 28-0
Next up: idle
Comment: It could have been worse for the Rams: They could have been Colorado, which lost at Utah 53-7. Yep, it was a rough day on the Front Range, but at least Air Force didn’t lose … thanks to a bye. (Previous: 7)
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