Active Atlantic hurricane season predicted by NOAA

COLUMBUS (WCMH) — NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is projecting another busy Atlantic hurricane season, issuing a 60 percent probability of an above-normal year, and a 30 percent chance of fewer than average storms.

Factors favoring an active Atlantic hurricane season include warm sea surface temperatures, weaker wind shear that allows storms to organize over tropical waters, and a stronger West African Monsoon pattern, where late-season storms tend to originate as disturbances coming off the Sahara region, taking shape near the Azores in the eastern Atlantic.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, but we recently saw an early-season Tropical Storm Arthur brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina on May 16, before heading out to sea. Since 2012, every year except 2014 has produced a tropical or subtropical storm prior to June.

Federal government forecasters are predicting between 13 and 19 named storms forming in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in 2020, with six to 10 storms reaching hurricane strength (74 mph sustained wind), and three to six major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, or greater than 110 mph). The past four years have brought an above-average number of storms.

In 2019, there were 18 tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin, six reaching hurricane intensity. Dorian was the most devastating by far, stalling over the Bahamas for about 40 hours, after making landfall with 185 mph winds–tying the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane for the strongest landfalling hurricane in the region’s history.