Poll: Trump holds edge over Biden in swing states
COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) – Former President Donald Trump holds a slight edge over President Joe Biden in seven key swing states, according to a new Emerson College/NBC4 poll. The survey polled voters in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The results are listed below: The results for each [...]
COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) – Former President Donald Trump holds a slight edge over President Joe Biden in seven key swing states, according to a new Emerson College/NBC4 poll.
The survey polled voters in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The results are listed below:
- Arizona: Trump 48%, Biden 44% with 8% undecided
- Georgia: Trump 47%, Biden 44% with 9% undecided
- Michigan: Trump 45%, Biden 44% with 11% undecided
- Nevada: Trump 45%, Biden 44% with 11% undecided
- North Carolina: Trump 47%, Biden 42% with 10% undecided
- Pennsylvania: Trump 47%, Biden 45% with 8% undecided
- Wisconsin: Trump 47%, Biden 45% with 8% undecided
The results for each poll are within that state’s margin of error.
When third-party candidates including Robert Kennedy Jr. are thrown into the mix, support is pulled more from Biden than Trump in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. That support is pulled evenly from both candidates in Arizona and Michigan.
The poll also asked about Trump’s ongoing criminal trial in New York. More of those polled in all states said the trial was appropriate as opposed to it being a "witch hunt:"
- Arizona: 47% say trial is appropriate, 43% say it is a witch hunt, 10% are unsure
- Georgia: 48% say trial is appropriate, 41% say it is a witch hunt, 11% are unsure
- Michigan: 50% say trial is appropriate, 43% say it is a witch hunt, 7% are unsure
- Nevada: 51% say trial is appropriate, 40% say it is a witch hunt, 9% are unsure
- North Carolina: 46% say trial is appropriate, 45% say it is a witch hunt, 9% are unsure
- Pennsylvania: 50% say trial is appropriate, 43% say it is a witch hunt, 7% are unsure
- Wisconsin: 49% say trial is appropriate, 43% say it is a witch hunt, 8% are unsure
And while the trial was deemed appropriate by voters in the seven states, Republicans in those states said a guilty verdict in the trial would have no impact or make them more likely to support Trump in the November election.
- Arizona: 32% more likely, 25% less likely, 43% no impact
- Georgia: 26% more likely, 32% less likely, 42% no impact
- Michigan: 26% more likely, 30% less likely, 45% no impact
- North Carolina: 32% more likely, 25% less likely, 43% no impact
- Nevada: 25% more likely, 32% less likely, 43% no impact
- Pennsylvania: 31% more likely, 24% less likely, 45% no impact
- Wisconsin: 24% more likely, 30% less likely, 47% no impact
Of the seven states polled, Biden won all but North Carolina, which went for Trump in 2020; Trump won Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016.
“The state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since Emerson and The Hill started tracking them last November,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a press release. “The share of undecided voters has reduced and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in the swing states.”