When will it snow in Ohio? Updated 2025-26 winter weather outlook
COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) -- As we enter November, our thoughts turn to what kind of winter lies ahead. In fact, late next weekend, a strong cold front could bring scattered flurries in parts of central Ohio and lake-effect snows in northern Ohio in a quick, short-lived cold blast behind an Alberta clipper system.
On average, the first measurable snow of the season in Columbus arrives around Nov. 20, and the first inch or greater about Dec. 7. These dates, based on the 1991-2020 period, are about a week later compared to the late 20th-century, which reflects a winter warming trend.
Early indications for this winter
An early indicator is sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, part of the cyclical pattern known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, which influence the position of the jet stream and storm track.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued a La Niña advisory in early October, with a 55% chance of returning to neutral conditions in January-March 2026. The opposite phase, or warm pattern, is called El Niño, which last occurred in the winter of 2023-24.
The predominant large-scale weather influence early this winter will be a weak La Niña, which favors a mild November and December with relatively light snowfalls. Things are likely to shift to a more typical Midwestern winter mode in January and February, based on the history of La Niña seasons.
If La Niña lingers through the entire winter, the cumulative snowfall will likely be below average in central Ohio, probably 16-24 inches, with the lighter totals in the southeastern counties.
Last winter (2024-25) hinted at a weak La Niña in the early going, but it didn't last long enough to qualify, although the results could serve as an approximate guide for the start of the upcoming season.
Autumn and the beginning of winter were very mild, with little snow until the first week of January 2025. Then, the bottom dropped out, with blasts of frigid air into early February. The bulk of the winter snowfall (14.8 inches) came in January (11.8 inches).
Other winter forecast factors
The amount of sea ice surrounding the Arctic region, and snow cover in Siberia and northern Asia, also play a role in the buildup of frigid air capable of reaching the U.S. The more snow and ice, the colder the air masses that reach the northern and central states when the jet stream dips south.
Other variables that could tip the scales to more cold and snow in midwinter are Arctic and tropical climate drivers, including a southward migration of the polar vortex, and subtropical moisture feeding Pacific systems that cross the nation, with mainly snow north and rain or mixed precipitation along and south of the primary storm track.
Additionally, a pool of warm water in the central North Pacific could strengthen a ridge in the jet stream over the northeastern Pacific, allowing colder air to flow south into the nation's heartland.
Weak La Niña Winters
Looking back at weak La Niña seasons patterns this century, when compared to the average Columbus snowfall (28.2 inches) and temperature (32.2 degrees), statistical clues emerge regarding the nature of the winter to come.
| WINTER | TOTAL SNOWFALL (Oct.-May) | AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Dec.-Feb.) |
| 2000-01 | 26.3 | 29.1 |
| 2005-06 | 12.9 | 34.7 |
| 2008-09 | 23.2 | 29.9 |
| 2016-17 | 9.3 | 37.1 |
| 2017-18 | 29.8 | 32.4 |
| 2022-23 | 12.5 | 37.7 |
Five of the six La Niña winters were less snowy compared to the 30-year average (1991-2020), while temperatures averaged above normal in 60% of those winters. Interestingly, the year after six moderate La Niña winters going back to 1950 (chillier waters than in a “weaker” pattern), half of the winters were fairly cold and snowy.
What is a typical La Niña winter in North America?
La Niña occurs when colder-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean loom off the coast of Peru and Ecuador. Warm water is pushed westward by strengthening easterly trade winds, allowing deeper, colder waters to reach the surface off the coast of South America.
This climate regime causes the jet stream to shift farther north across the northeastern Pacific into western Canada, with a split flow sending moisture south of blocking high pressure into the Pacific Northwest. Farther east, a northwesterly flow over the lakes brings frequent lake-effect snowfalls in northeastern Ohio in early winter.
The average winter storm track, which follows the jet stream, tends to dive southward over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, where heavier precipitation occurs. A northward turn near the Ohio River Valley brings milder air in contact with cold Canadian air, resulting in mixed rain/snow or rain, sometimes ending as snow showers. (Significant snows usually fall 100 to 150 miles northwest of the storm track.)
Above-average snowfall is generally limited to the Mountain West and northern tier of states, from the High Plains to the Great Lakes and northern New England. Drier conditions prevail in the Southern states, with below-normal snowfall from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic region.
Winter of 2022-23
The variability in La Niña winter was illustrated in the winter of 2022-23, which was initially mild in Ohio, until a major Christmas Eve snowstorm and blast of frigid air that sent the temperature plummeting to -7 degrees in Columbus, with a wind chill of -34 on December 23, 2022. Yet temperatures in January-February 2023 averaged about 8 degrees above normal., and merely a trace of snow fell in February, with a final winter tally of a meager 12.3 inches.
La Niña was also present in the winters of 2016-17 and 2017-18. The winter of 2016-17 was exceptionally mild, delivering only 9.3 inches of snow in Columbus.
However, a weaker La Niña in 2017-18 brought a totally different result, pointing to the role of other factors beyond Pacific climate systems, especially on the weaker end.
Both December 2017 and January 2018 averaged several degrees below normal, with nearly 20 inches of snow falling in Columbus. February brought a complete reversal, with temperatures more than 6 degrees above normal. March and April were cold and snowy, raising the season snowfall to 30.7 inches.