This jilted ally has a long-term plan for revenge — and Trump's already feeling the pain

The latest version of Trump’s mood-contingent tariffs took effect Thursday, prompting Trump to post-boast two minutes before midnight that “BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN TARIFFS” are now pouring into the US. He skipped the part where American companies pay those tariffs, which soon will trickle down to consumers in the form of higher prices.

The vast majority of economists and CEOs reject Trump’s market mayhem and predict that his tariffs will have disastrous consequences on the US economy. Outside Fox News, where Trump’s economic illiteracy is celebrated, economists are aghast. In April, dozens of top economists, including two Nobel laureates, signed a letter advising that Trump’s tariffs have “no basis in economic reality,” calling Trump’s tariff policy ‘misguided,’ and warning it could cause a “self-inflicted recession.”

Hard data mapping the tariffs’ effects won’t be available immediately; if Trump can help it, judging by his handling of the jobs report, that data won’t come out at all. But it’s already clear, contrary to his promise of creating more factory jobs, that Trump’s tariff threats coincided with job losses nationwide.

Trump has purposely upended domestic and world trade, leading both the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development to downgrade their predictions for global economic growth. Economists John Silvia and Brad Jensen argue that Trump’s tariffs will slow the economy, resulting simultaneously in fewer jobs and lower real wages. They predict the economic erosion will be a slow, steady process rather than an immediate collapse.

Oh Canada!

While some US trade partners are shocked at the lack of pushback from Trump’s allegedly “pro-business” Republican Party, no trading partner has been jilted quite so ignominiously as Canada.

Despite having only about 11 percent of the population of the US, Canada was the single largest importer of U.S. goods, and our second-largest foreign investor. Trump’s mean-spirited tariffs and rhetoric gutted that symbiosis for good. Trump hit Canadian steel and aluminum with up to 50 percent tariffs, and slapped Canadian pharmaceuticals and autos with 35 percent tariffs, depending on where components are made. The tariffs have already triggered Canadian layoffs, including at General Motors Canada, a subsidiary of American GM, and will soon jack the prices of $3 billion worth of Canadian pharmaceuticals consumed in the US annually.

Doug Ford, leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario, urges forceful pushback. Instead of rolling over to please an irrational Trump, Ford wants Canada to “Hit that guy back as hard as we possibly can.” Trained economist and banker–turned–Prime Minister Mark Carney, however, takes a more measured approach. He recently noted that Trump, in effect, is now charging for access to the US economy, causing trading partners to look elsewhere.

Carney’s response has been a diplomatic and classy middle finger. Instead of tit for tat, Carney is pivoting Canada with precision toward alternative trade blocs like Europe and the Pacific rim. He’s also seeding more self-reliance manufacturing, re-targeting billions into Canadian manufacturing investments as he approaches other nations where “free trade is a commitment, not a condition.”

Thanks to Trump, what was once one of the most stable, peaceful, and lucrative relationships in the world has been destabilized. One in four Canadians now views the U.S. as an enemy, while 76 percent hold an unfavorable opinion of Trump and consider him “dangerous.”

Impatient Canadians are taking matters into their own hands, boycotting U.S. products and promoting “Made in Canada” goods. A majority of Canadian provinces are boycotting certain American products altogether. US-made beer, wine, and spirits have disappeared from Canadian shelves, leading the CEO of Jack Daniel to call the boycott “worse than tariffs.”

Angry Canadians are also boycotting American foods, especially fast food chains like McDonald's, Burger King, Subway, Wendy's, and Domino’s. Other American owned restaurants including Pizza Hut, KFC, Taco Bell, and Popeyes, are also facing boycotts, while US coffee chains Starbucks, Dunkin’ Donuts, and Keurig have already reported losses of Canadian sales. Canadians are buying local and rejecting American products like butter and dairy spreads, prepared bakery foods, pizza, pastries, and even US-made condiments, and tourists are skipping US destinations, with Forbes reporting a 33 percent reduction in June.

A mature contrast

As Canadians sour on the US under Trump, anti-American rhetoric is spreading and Canadian nationalism is surging. Aside from the tariffs, Canadians are triggered by Trump’s repeated insults against Canadian sovereignty as he urges them, like a sarcastic mob boss offering protection, to become the 51st state. Disgusted Canadians are calling for further trade retaliation against the US, with over 60 percent of all Canadians urging Carney to adopt retaliatory counter-tariffs.

But instead of responding impulsively, Carney is playing the long game. Lamenting that Canada can “no longer count on” the US, which had been its “most valued“ trading partner, Carney is shifting Canada away from US customers, helping affected Canadian companies find new buyers, forge new partnerships, and develop new products.

In contrast to Trump’s bluster-filled, roulette approach to tariffs, Carney stresses that he “will apply tariffs where they have the maximum impact in the United States and minimum impact in Canada.”

Suggesting he will study the facts in product-specific markets before he acts — another marked contrast to Trump — Carney said he would not respond quickly but would adjust after the facts come in, and develop a strategy that is industry specific.

This embarrassing Gufus and Gallant study in contrasts has led an unprecedented number of Americans to research how to export an entirely new product to Canada: themselves.

• Sabrina Haake is a columnist and 25+ year federal trial attorney specializing in 1st and 14th A defense. Her Substack, The Haake Take, is free.