This week, we learned that rookie Jackson Jobe needs Tommy John surgery; the Hunter Dobbins-Yankees rivalry just won’t go away; and Byron Buxton crushed the second longest homer in the bigs this season. Other Fantasy baseball stories we’re tracking include…

Sell High On Zack Littell?

The Tampa Bay Rays won just 80 games last season, snapping a streak of six straight winning campaigns and five straight playoff appearances. But they’ve bounced back this year, and despite dropping their last two, have won six of 10 to move to four games over .500, good enough to bag the final wild card slot in the AL if the season were to end today.

One of the reasons for the Rays’ turnaround this year has been the continued solid pitching of Zack Littell. Heading into his start against Boston on Wednesday, he’d been on a very nice roll that included a 2.70 ERA over his last seven starts and 10 straight outings in which he had yielded three or fewer earned runs.

Now, while Littell wasn’t awful against the BoSox (eight hits over six innings, six Ks vs. zero walks), half the hits he surrendered were solo homers leading to his sixth loss against six wins.

We really liked him when he was a Yankee pitching prospect back in the day, but it wasn’t until last year that he became a full-time starter in the bigs – with fine results, despite the high loss total. This year, Littell has a better record and has become harder to hit. However, when he gets hit, it’s been harder contact (career high maximum exit velocity, and higher hard hit percentage). And if you’re seeking a big K pitcher, keep looking, although every now and then, he does this…

Given that Littell’s xERA is nearly a run higher than his actual ERA, he may be a sell high candidate. His command – as per usual – is fantastic (second lowest walk rate in the bigs), but the gopheritis is becoming a real issue – even with a lower launch angle allowed — so we’re not sure we like where his season is headed.

Max Kepler Not Working Out for Philly

We didn’t have high hopes for Max Kepler heading into 2023, only slotting him at No. 79 in our Outfield Rankings, but he surprised us. Still, that big year he had sure looks like an outlier given his regression since. Regardless, Philadelphia banked on him bouncing back when it signed him to a one-year, $10 million deal in late-December, and so far the returns have been underwhelming,

Kepler has shown signs of life with hits, runs and RBI in back-to-back games, including a two-run homer on Tuesday, but had been ice cold in June before this mini outburst, and really, he’s gotten progressively worse since a hot start in the first week of the season.

He’s on pace for his most at-bats since 2019, so that will help bump up his counting cat numbers, but saddled with a career-worst .210 BA and another sub-.400 SLG, he’s really hard to roster except in NL-only formats.

Even so, there’s an unknown big league pitcher who picked Kepler as the hitter he’d least like to face in Game Seven of the World Series. Um… okay.

ZIPS had higher expectations of him for 2025, projecting a .241/.314/.428 slash line, but given that his career OPS is worse in the second half (726 vs. 754 in the first half), those numbers look like a poor bet if you’re playing the odds.

Waiver Wire Pick of the Week

JP Sears, SP, Athletics (ESPN: 8.5 per cent; CBS: 38 per cent): A couple of years ago we pimped Sears, and it offered mix results as he got roughed up to finish August, but then enjoyed his finest month of the season in September. He showed modest improvement last year and at the very least morphed into an innings eater. This season, Sears has been inconsistent, but with two solid starts in his last three outings, he’s bouncing back from a rough May. His record is decent for a bad team and he ranks in the top 10 in BB/9 as his control has improved each season. Given that Sears’ xERA is exactly a run lower than his actual ERA, we’re banking on better ROS results, however the regression in his soft contact rate (replaced by medium contact) is worrisome. Even so, a career best SIERA of 4.25 suggests he’s never pitched better, so give him a look if you need pitching help.

RotoRob Tune of the Day

In 1972, David Bowie started to really hit it big in the wake of his single “Starman” and his album The Rise and Fall of Ziggy Stardust and the Spiders from Mars. Five years later, he released his ninth album, Heroes, and the title track and lead single remains among his most iconic tracks.