The Gun Violence in D.C.: Gangsters and repeat criminals
The DC homicide rate in 2020 was 18% higher than the city’s 2019 rate. This Gun Violence Problem Analysis examined all 341 homicides occurring in the District of Columbia from January 1, 2019 – December 31, 2020, and all 522 nonfatal injury shootings that occurred from January 1, 2020 – December 31, 2020.
Overall, most adult victims and suspects with prior criminal offenses had been arrested about 11 times for about 13 different offenses by the time of the homicide.
Approximately 86 percent of homicide victims and suspects were known to the criminal justice system prior to the incident. Among all victims and suspects, about 46 percent had been previously incarcerated.
In homicide events, between 31-33 percent of victims and 50-57 percent of identified suspects were group-involved. In nonfatal shooting events, between 11-38 percent of victims and 15-60 percent of identified suspects were group-involved.
At least 91 groups were identified among the victims and/or suspects of homicides and nonfatal shootings that took place from 2019-2020. Of those, 19 groups were involved in three or more nonfatal shootings/homicides. Across homicides, five core groups emerged as responsible for the most violent incidents.
Most groups/gangs in the District of Columbia are heavily engaged in narcotics sales. Many conflicts between groups and group members may evolve from drug-related disputes and social media conflicts. Group associations were noted to be growing more unstable and dynamic, with associated members frequently crossing districts, changing affiliations, and/or forming alliances with individual members across multiple groups. Figure 5 below is one of several, but one of the most violent, conflict-alliance diagrams developed through the GVPA process. The anonymized diagram represents real groups in Southeast DC.
Of the 622 unique homicide victims and suspects, 83 individuals (13.4 percent) had previously been shot or stabbed. This information was sourced from MPD police reports, so this percentage does not reflect victimization in another jurisdiction or victimization that was not reported to the police. Therefore, and based on national data, it is very likely that the rate of prior victimization is much higher.
Of those who had documented prior victimization, 98 percent of those individuals were Black males. Individuals with prior victimization were an average age of 30.6 and 66 percent of them were between the ages of 18-34. About 52 percent had been shot or stabbed within the past five years.
Summary Findings and Recommendations
In Washington, DC, most gun violence is tightly concentrated on a small number of very high risk young Black male adults that share a common set of risk factors, including: involvement in street crews/groups; significant criminal justice history including prior or active community supervision; often prior victimization; and a connection to a recent shooting (within the past 12 months).
While the majority of people involved in shootings, as victim or suspect, are members or associates of street groups/gangs, the motive for the shooting may not be a traditional gang war. Often shootings are precipitated by a petty conflict over a young woman, a simple argument, or the now ubiquitous social media slight.
Exacerbating the social media incited shootings are music videos that promote certain neighborhoods or cliques that also “dis” other crews or individuals, sparking a series of comments and competing videos that escalate into shootings.
All of this is made possible and exacerbated by the wide availability of firearms and the culture of resolving conflicts through violence. This popular YouTube video provides a detailed explanation of one of DC’s primary neighborhood conflicts, including disturbing images of firearms with extended magazines3: Deadly War In DC: Simple City vs 37th – YouTube
This small number of very high risk individuals are identifiable, their violence is predictable, and therefore it is preventable. Based on the assessment of data and the series of interviews conducted, NICJR estimates that within a year, there are at least 500 identifiable people who rise to this level of very high risk, and likely no more than 200 at any one given time.
These individuals comprise approximately 60-70% of all gun violence in the District. Nealy 250 specific individuals were identified through the GVPA process but more importantly, the risk factors that make someone at very high risk has been identified in order to develop an on-going process to focus intervention efforts on those at very high risk.