Kansas State is one of five teams our Agent X projects to be favored in all 12 of their games
LAS VEGAS — It’s akin to hearing Sinatra snap his fingers on “Come Fly with Me,” Count Basie tickle the ivories on “One O’Clock Jump,” The Flamingos wonder if it’s cloudy or bright.
“Week Zero.”
Sweet music, signaling college football’s imminent kickoff, eking into Week One to comprise a wall of glorious point spreads at sportsbooks.
On Aug. 23, the opener is significant as Iowa State plays Kansas State in Ireland. A keen handicapper projects the Wildcats as one of five programs to be favored in every game.
That day ends on Oahu, Stanford giving two points to Hawaii. In between, seven more games. The onslaught continues several days later, capped by TCU at North Carolina on Labor Day evening.
As eager as some like me might be to watch college pigskin and take a financial risk or two, it’s sound to observe most of this action.
South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews hasn’t experienced a stampede to his windows. He said, “just a couple of $100 bets so far.”
In Texas, ’capper Sean Higgs will “tread a little lightly.” In New York, Tom Barton avoids power ratings. He said, “I hate to go into any season looking at what ‘I think’ rather than what actually is.”
In Iowa, former UNLV quarterback and sharp prognosticator Jon Denton answered “yes and no” when asked about wagering on teams we haven’t seen play yet.
“I think you can get an early advantage on teams who return their own players, with the same system, experience and depth,” he said. “Outside of this situation, you’d be crazy to go guns blazing early on.”
The long game
A pal gifted me his power-ratings file, which has been helpful. I am involved with Iowa State-Kansas State since this friend, call him Agent X, projects the Wildcats to be favored in all 12 of their games.
I favor the long game, so that nugget influenced me to take an over position on Kansas State’s regular-season win total of 8.5, at -115 (or risk $115 to win $100), at Circa Sports.
The other four tabbed to be favored a dozen times, with their Circa total figures and over prices, are Clemson (9.5, -165), Georgia (9.5, -180), Notre Dame (10, -120) and Ohio State (10.5, +125).
Projected to be favored in every game doesn’t guarantee a 12-0 season, but these squads have obvious edges and strengths. K-State has the widest berth, since it can drop three games and still pay over dividends.
In case the Wildcats and quarterback Avery Johnson soar, I grabbed a 100-to-1 title ticket as potential playoff hedging material.
(I’m already involved with Miami and Florida in the title picture and their quarterbacks in the Heisman race.)
Texas and ballyhooed quarterback Arch Manning? Agent X has the Longhorns favored in 10 of 12 games, pegging Ohio State as a 3.5-point favorite against Texas in Week 1.
Circa has the Texas total at 9.5 (-150 over, +130 under).
The teasin’ fool
In a minnow’s fashion, I will participate in a few openers. I factored my pal’s lines with actual spreads and took four teams for value because their numbers eclipsed a certain threshold. Plus, I teased each seven points.
Pros never tease. So what, I say, to echo Miles Davis. I’m not a professional and vow to keep this entertaining. I also need every ounce of help I can muster, and seven-point teasers help me cash tickets.
So I’m on Tulane +0.5 points against Northwestern, Ball State +23.5 at Purdue, Old Dominion +30.5 at Indiana and Georgia State +43.5 at Ole Miss, one ticket with all four and several goofball two-teamers, via Station Casinos. If all hit, on Aug. 30, I’ll nearly triple my investment.
Caveat emptor
Higgs wagered on TCU’s +115 moneyline when North Carolina opened as a slim favorite. Bettors quickly boosted the Horned Frogs to favored status, and Higgs bought their moneyline again, at -118.
“I do not like the [Bill] Belichick hire,” Higgs said of the Tar Heels’ surprise offseason move.
And since Colorado lost NFL-caliber talent, and because he questions coach Deion Sanders’ health, Higgs is bullish on Georgia Tech -3.5 against Colorado.
“I don’t think that team was all that great [last season],” he said of the Buffaloes. “They’re not better [now], for sure.”
Denton will look to play that Kansas State-Iowa State game over its total of around 50. Plus, early on, he plans to fade FBS infants Jacksonville State, Sam Houston State and Kennesaw State.
Denton will spend an abundance of Week 0 and Week 1 time watching and learning.
“You’re just not able to count on trends as much, early on, because of the transient state of college football,” he said. “You need a ‘current’ sample size, and that takes a few weeks.
“USC, Colorado and Nebraska all crushed the portal last year, but it didn’t translate to [national title-contending] seasons. They were heavily bet early in 2024 … buyer beware!”
College football is about to dominate my large screen, its yappers muted as the turntable spins Bird on 52nd Street and the Stones’ Exile on Main Street. At some point, a girl from Ipanema, like a samba, just might pass by.