Best bets for the upcoming NHL season: Lightning may strike
LAS VEGAS — My NHL-betting tactics had to change. Game wagering was atrocious last season, magnified by that 21-game losing streak. Or was it 22?
The sorrowful stretch shocked disbelieving friends, but it did unfold that way. I wasn’t too concerned about my wallet because I’m a minnow, for that NHL reason.
Jeff Davis knows the feeling. The ace NHL oddsman for Circa Sports once had 13 overtimes go the wrong way. As he says, at that point, “you just gotta laugh.”
He stays anchored in the middle, never too high or two low, like a seasoned professional, and his bankroll far outweighs mine.
Halfway through the playoffs, I did scramble after having an epiphany watching the Panthers. The defending Stanley Cup champs looked like they were playing harder and hungrier than they had the previous year.
So I grabbed them to reach Lord Stanley’s final for around +300 (or risk $100 to win $300) and to win it all at around +240.
Florida beat the Oilers in six games. In 2024, the Panthers defeated Edmonton in seven games after dropping the ’23 championship to Vegas.
To attack this season differently, I simply invested in Edmonton (+800) and Florida (+600) title and conference tickets, and juicy final exactas pitting Florida over Edmonton (34-to-1), Oilers over Panthers (37-1).
I’m banking on repetition. I’ll dodge the NHL during the season, giving me more time to better handicap other sports.
Those Edmonton and Florida tickets made up my entire 2025-26 hockey portfolio until I spoke with Davis.
Been there
A Massachusetts native, Davis didn’t dismiss my Edmonton-Florida theories. You can’t ever argue, he tells me, with playing the teams that have been there. He, however, has taken a different tack.
“I might laugh at myself come Round 1, but I think the market is asleep on the Lightning,’’ he said. ‘‘We forget: Last season, Tampa Bay was one of the highest-scoring and best teams in the league.
“They played Florida in the first round and got smoked. But the series was basically a pick’em.”
Captain and defenseman Victor Hedman, Davis says, basically played in the postseason with a broken bone in his right foot, while center Anthony Cirelli had a strained ligament in his right knee.
“[The Lightning] just really had no chance in that series,” Davis said. “Florida was a buzz saw. But Tampa Bay has shored up and gotten deeper.”
Davis likes left wing Conor Geekie, Morgan’s little brother who was the 11th overall draft pick by the Coyotes in 2022 whom the Lightning acquired in a June 2024 trade.
“He will help the fourth line,” Davis said. “They got better at the bottom, and their top line is absurd.”
That features left wing Brandon Hagel, center Brayden Point and right wing Nikita Kucherov, with star goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy.
“Coming into the season,” Davis said, “the Lightning are my highest-rated team.”
In no particular order, he pegs the Hurricanes, Panthers and Lightning as the best squads in the East, and the Avalanche, Oilers and Golden Knights in the West.
The Panthers will skate without left wing Matthew Tkachuk, who had a torn adductor muscle and sports hernia repaired from the 4 Nations Face-Off tourney, until the new year.
So Davis went heavy on Tampa Bay, betting over its projected 101.5 points and getting 16-to-1 odds on the Lightning taking the Cup, plus +275 to win the Atlantic Division.
On Saturday afternoon, I zipped to Boomer’s Sportsbook, Joe Asher’s new independent operation that has four shops in Nevada, and bought those last two tickets, respectively, at 15-1 and +300, plus +700 on Tampa Bay to win the East.
Davis also recommended that the Penguins will be the East’s worst team, so betting under their 74.5 projected total would be wise.
Viva Vegas
In the West, Davis is bullish about the Golden Knights having acquired right wing Mitch Marner from the Maple Leafs in July.
“The first thing I did was run to the phone and bet plus-600 for them to win the West,” Davis said. “That’s a weak division, too, outside Edmonton [and Vegas]. I expect a big, big season from the Golden Knights.
“For me to say that about that team is a stretch because I thought the market had them overrated for years. I’ve lost a lot of money, over the course of time, on them in the regular season.”
So I enhanced my NHL portfolio by buying Vegas to take the Pacific Division at +165 and to win the West at +525.
Basement Hawks
We saved the worst for the basement, which is where Davis expects the Blackhawks to spend the season.
He mentions centers Connor Bedard (20) and Frank Nazar (22) and defensemen Sam Rinzel (21) and Artyom Levshunov (20) as exceptional young players.
“There’s no depth,” Davis said. “There will be too many nights that they lose 6-1. It’s inevitable. They and the Sharks are similar in their makeup in that they have a lot of young kids.”
Davis nabbed a 70.5 on the Hawks’ projected season-points total and bet under. It was 67.5 at Boomer’s, so I passed, as I did on +200 on the Hawks finishing with the fewest points in the NHL
“Their ceiling is high; they’re just all so young,” Davis said. “They’re at the bottom with no high-end veteran talent. In terms of the roster, it’s just so far away. I can’t see how the Hawks are a playoff team this season or next.”