Can the GOP Pass the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Without Tillis?

As the drama over Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful bill approaches its climax this week, there’s been lots of complaining among House and Senate Republicans about various provisions. You might even conclude the megabill is in trouble. But the battle over the budget-reconciliation bill is really like a game of musical chairs: Republicans are free to posture and maneuver and bitch and moan about the bill until the moment Trump stops the music and they all (or nearly all) vote “aye.” It’s happened over and over again during the long and tedious process that led to this moment, and there’s no reason to think the basic dynamic has changed.

But there has been one truly surprising development during the last few days: Instead of quietly swallowing his objections to the megabill (particularly its Medicaid cuts), North Carolina senator Thom Tillis abruptly announced he is leaving the Senate when his term ends in 2026. So instead of having a tiny bit of leverage over the megabill as a vulnerable 2026 Senate reelection candidate, Tillis is now out of action and irrelevant. He is free to vote “no” on the bill, as he presumably will unless he decides he wants an ambassadorship or something.

Republicans can afford to lose Tillis as long as total Senate defections are held to three. (Tillis joined the incorrigible Rand Paul in voting against the motion to formally take up the bill, which led to Trump threatening to back a primary bid against Tillis, triggering his retirement announcement.) Who else will be brave enough to rebel or perhaps lucky enough to get a “pass” on backing this terrible legislation? Perhaps Susan Collins, who is up for reelection next year in a state carried by Kamala Harris in 2024? Possibly Ron Johnson, the Senate’s counterpart to the House Freedom Caucus deficit hawks? The one thing we know for sure is that the managers of this legislation will go to great lengths to make sure it passes, as they did when they basically exempted Lisa Murkowski’s Alaska from SNAP cuts, in that would have hit her state harder than any other.

But congressional Republicans must soon end the deal-cutting and go with whatever they’ve got. And indeed, they don’t have to buy off every potential defector with changes in the bill. Instead, they are focused on creating and reinforcing a narrative about it that may be a pack of lies but will be accepted by the GOP base, conservative media, and just enough swing voters to neutralize some of its negative effects. It’s a matter of marketing as much as persuasion. Here are the key elements of the Republican BBB mythology that have emerged as the bill gets closer to final passage:

The emerging shape of the reconciliation bill and the hardening narratives about its implications can get lost in the daily back-and-forth of talk about Republican divisions, and in the intrinsic complexity of the congressional budget process being utilized. On Monday the Senate is going through the Kabuki theater of a “vote-a-rama” in which Democrats are allowed to offer a high-speed series of amendments to the bill, mostly just to force Republicans to go on record as backing some of its more unsavory provisions. Assuming the Senate passes the bill, we’ll have a day or two of posturing by House members outraged by specific provisions of the Senate bill, before it inevitably passes that chamber by the narrowest possible margin. There could be a last-minute arithmetic problem caused by House members falling ill or missing flight connections, but at present it looks like Trump will get his Independence Day present of a megabill on his desk by the end of the week. The rest of the noise surrounding this legislative monster will soon fade, and Congress will redirect its energies to reelecting itself in 2026. Thom Tillis can watch the whole show from a comfortable distance.