Racial Profiling Could Create Mass Backlash to Mass Deportations

Enactment of Donald Trump’s megabill will, among many other things, finance a huge expansion of the administration’s already torrid mass deportation of immigrants. When that happens, what for many Americans is something on the news that is happening in distant cities will come forcefully home from coast to coast. The sheer scale of raids, arrests, detentions, and deportations could make an already controversial initiative much more unpopular, particularly when it becomes vividly apparent the administration is not, after all, just going after violent criminals — not by a long shot.

But the fears associated with mass deportation are not limited to noncitizens who have been living peacefully in America, sometimes for decades, and are now at risk of being whisked off with little or no opportunity to protest and either sent to a home country they may not be able to recognize or, worse yet, shipped to some third-country holding pen chosen precisely because it’s unsafe. Indeed, some of them may actually get protection from ICE if they happen to work in industries or localities that have some juice in the White House, though the administration has been extremely erratic in addressing immigrant populations crucial to the economy.

A bigger political problem for Team Trump is the very real possibility that zealous ICE agents or their local law-enforcement partners, operating under the numbers-conscious lash of Stephen Miller, may not even bother to carefully target noncitizens. As Axios reports, there are growing incidents of sheer racial profiling of Latinos in the dragnets being deployed:

Reports of citizens of Latino descent being detained — or stopped and asked to prove citizenship — are rippling through Latino communities nationwide.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) hasn’t released statistics on such detentions in months. Tricia McLaughlin, a Department of Homeland Security spokesperson, told Axios that recent reports of citizens wrongly being arrested are false — and that “the media is shamefully peddling a false narrative” to demonize ICE agents. But an Axios review of news reports, social media videos and claims by advocacy groups about raids since President Trump took office found several instances in which U.S. citizens alleged they were wrongfully detained — in one case, for 10 days in immigration detention.

But even if some care is taken not to round up citizens in sweeps, the geographical targeting of heavily Latino areas is unmistakable and will undoubtedly affect overall Latino perceptions of the administration, as The American Prospect’s Harold Meyerson notes after watching intensive raids in Los Angeles:

By sweeping up day laborers, car wash and garment workers, and the attendees at swap meets in the Latino parts of Los Angeles, ICE’s criterion is clearly racial. Of the 722 people arrested by ICE in the Los Angeles area from June 1 through June 10, a Los Angeles Times study revealed, 69 percent had no criminal convictions. But they were in jobs and places that immigrants frequented, and they sure looked Latino. In consequence, as Jackie Ramirez, a Los Angeles radio host, told the Times, “you’re scared to be brown.”

Which is why many thousands of L.A. Latinos are sheltering at home rather than reporting to work, or riding buses, or going to church or the supermarket.

Again, such experiences and the associated perceptions of racial profiling are absolutely certain to spread when ICE gets its game-changing infusion of new funds and personnel.

There could also be an underlying sense of betrayal among some Latinos, who understand their community was decisive in helping Trump get back into the White House. Yes, Trump made mass deportation a major policy goal in the 2024 campaign, but the incessant drumbeat of his message was a focus on violent criminals in the immigrant population. A recent Cato Institute report showed how far off target the actual ICE strategy has been:

As of June 14, ICE had booked into detention 204,297 individuals (since October 1, 2024, the start of fiscal year 2025). Of those book-ins, 65 percent, or 133,687 individuals, had no criminal convictions. Moreover, more than 93 percent of ICE book-ins were never convicted of any violent offenses. About nine in ten had no convictions for violent or property offenses. Most convictions (53 percent) fell into three main categories: immigration, traffic, or nonviolent vice crimes. 

At some point, this mismatch of campaign rhetoric and reality is going to really sink in. Already, Latinos have a dim view of the administration’s immigration policies: The most recent Economist-YouGov poll showed them disapproving of the president’s job performance on immigration by a 62 percent to 27 percent margin, with 51 percent disapproving strongly. When mass deportation goes to scale and Latinos nationwide feel the touch of ICE nearby, these numbers are not going to get better. And that could have a real impact on the 2026 midterm elections, not to mention the long-term political evolution of America’s fastest-growing major category of voters.