New Tariffs Mean New Blows to Trump’s Popularity

With the arrival of Liberation Day III (August 1, the latest rather porous deadline for major new tariffs imposed on countries that don’t accept Donald Trump’s demands for America-friendly “trade deals”, following the original Liberation Day on April 2, and a second set of announcements on July 7 that were largely paused), an ongoing debate among economists about their impact will certainly intensify. Very few trained economists have anything other than contempt for Trump’s underlying protectionist philosophy. But there are varied explanations for the relatively limited negative effects of the tariff program so far on consumer prices. Some cite the erratic nature of Trump’s policies, wherein he often seems to be digging holes only to fill them up, to the relief of edgy markets. Others suggest importers are temporarily “eating” tariffs rather than passing them along to consumers, or are depleting inventories built up prior to the first Liberation Day in April. Still others may concede that Trump’s gamble on the willingness of trading partners to pay more for access to U.S. markets had some merit.

But whatever the experts think, and however limited the real-world impact (and the latest job, stock and inflation numbers aren’t that encouraging), it’s quite clear that Trump’s tariff initiative is unpopular, in part because they fear it will eventually boost prices and in part because people think he’s got the wrong priorities in economic policy. So even if Liberation Day III (already extended a week) doesn’t immediately cause pain to Americans, tariffs being in the news won’t be good for Trump’s job approval ratings.

According to Silver Bulletin’s extensive polling averages, the two issues on which Trump’s job approval numbers are most negative are inflation (with net approval currently at minus-24.1 percent) and trade (net approval is at minus-16.3 percent). One pollster, Navigator Research, that has done regular assessments of public opinion on tariffs, has found very steady 2 to 1 ratios of disapproval over approval since April. Their latest poll in mid-July found 60 percent of independents and 26 percent of Republicans disapproving tariffs. It’s a definite drag on Trump’s overall standing, which in the Sliver Bulletin averages has stabilized a bit (with net approval at minus-8.8 percent) after plunging a couple of weeks ago (reaching a second-term low of 10.3 percent on July 22). You can expect another drop in his popularity after a few more days or even weeks of headlines on tariffs. Some feel the tariff news will serve as a distraction from all the chatter about the Epstein Files. If so, Trump needs a distraction from the distraction.