Will the Midterms Be Won by Cheating?
The redistricting war, which began in Texas when Republicans there unveiled a new map that could potentially add five seats for the GOP in Congress, will have great consequences for the rest of America. If Republicans can retain control of the House next year, they will likely get to dominate the federal government for all four years of Donald Trump’s term because the Senate is already tilted in their favor. The Texas redraw is not a complete lock for Republicans in the state — if Latinos drift back toward the Democrats, the five new seats may not be the GOP boon they appear to be — but it can be, along with the move by Ohio Republicans to gerrymander a more favorable map, a dagger in the heart of anti-Trump efforts. Democrats desperately need to flip the House next year.
Right now, the best bet for a Democratic counterattack comes from California, where Governor Gavin Newsom has said he’d trigger a mid-decade redraw of House districts if Texas successfully completes its own gerrymander. Newsom’s path to doing this is trickier than Greg Abbott’s in Texas because California has an independent redistricting process that voter, in a ballot initiative must override. California will be operating on a very tight timeline to install new maps ahead of elections next year.
All of this is unprecedented — redistricting is supposed to happen once every tenyears, not in the middle of a decade — and underscores just how willing Republicans are to stomp on the metaphorical necks of Democrats. And it all but guarantees a certain era of good government will come to a close — or one, at least, that aspired to loftier aims. Over the past couple of decades, Democrats have championed independent, nonpartisan redistricting as a panacea for corruption and an effective counter against GOP gerrymandering. Democrats were scarred after the 2010 Tea Party wave gave Republicans carte blanche to engineer new maps in 2012 that locked in sizable advantages for the rest of the decade. Republicans did remain in the House majority until 2019; it took an anti-Trump wave, in 2018, to dislodge them and make Nancy Pelosi speaker again.
Assuming Texas is successful in its efforts — local Democrats are plotting over how to block them, including leaving a special session and denying the GOP quorum — and California can gerrymander its own maps in response, the momentum around independent redistricting may be sapped for good. Major initiatives like Eric Holder’s National Democratic Districting Committee will hold less allure. Republicans were never interested in processes that took politics out of redistricting, and now Democrats, locked in a war for survival, will walk away, too. Other Democrat-run states, including New York, will explore ways to unwind independent or quasi-independent commissions; they want all the power Republicans enjoy within Texas.
On one level, this is all understandable. American politics is truly zero sum. Either Team Red is winning or Team Blue is winning, and most policy is changed only when one party gets full control of the government and can ignore, through reconciliation bills, the minority. But independent redistricting is better, and politics shouldn’t infect the process. In an ideal nation, every state would have an independent commission and the redrawing of maps, once in a decade, would be fair and standardized, left up to outside analysts who have no stake in either the Republican or the Democratic Party. We do not, of course, live in that nation, and Democrats can’t be blamed for wanting to combat ruthless Republicans.
The real challenge for them is that Republicans have control of more state legislatures and governor’s mansions. The down-ballot bloodbath Democrats faced in the Obama years took its toll. Thanks to the advantage Republicans now hold in rural areas, there are a higher number of states that they win in presidential elections and then dominate at the state level. Democrats have just eight “trifectas” — control of both legislative houses, plus the governor’s mansion — in 15 states. Republicans have trifectas in 23.
Still, even with the Texas gerrymander, the House is winnable for Democrats next year. Trump is increasingly unpopular, and voters are restive. With their college-educated base, Democrats are well-positioned, generally, for midterm elections. Casual Trump voters might stay home, since he won’t be on the ballot. Democrats will need tough messaging to cut through the noise — saving Medicaid is a good place to start — and candidates who will excite average people. This is all, at least, achievable.
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