The Fantasy Behind Netanyahu’s Invasion of Gaza City
Escalation of the war in Gaza is in sight. Last week, as the famine grew worse, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a plan for his country’s military to take control of Gaza City, a decision roundly condemned as a costly invasion that would create more suffering for Palestinians and risk the lives of the remaining Israeli hostages in Hamas captivity. Inside Israel, Netanyahu’s decision has been criticized by most everyone outside his core supporters, with the Israeli Defense Forces’ chief of staff reportedly warning that such a move would lead to a deadlock for years. To understand Netanyahu’s decision within the context of Israeli politics, I spoke with Dov Waxman, an Israeli studies professor at UCLA.
The IDF says it controls 75 percent of Gaza now. Why is the invasion of Gaza City such a significant escalation?
Until now, Israel has tried to control the territory but not the population. That’s similar to the West Bank as well. They want to corral the population and control the perimeters. But they haven’t wanted Israeli soldiers walking down the narrow streets of refugee camps in central Gaza, where they could be targets for Hamas insurgents. So that’s really been the approach taken until now. The idea that IDF chiefs presented as an alternative was to surround Gaza City but not actually go in. They don’t want to be responsible for having to take care of the needs of Palestinian civilians.
Can you explain who is pushing back against Netanyahu and his security council’s plan to take control of Gaza City?
I would put it as, Who isn’t pushing back? The pushback is coming from the echelons of the IDF and from the entire security Establishment, including many former high-ranking security officials, former generals, and members of Israel’s intelligence service. That’s one group.
The second group, which is also important, is the families of the hostages still held in the Gaza Strip and the organization that represents them. And some of the members of those families have been very vocal in opposing this.
Then of course you have the majority of the Israeli public. A recent poll shows that over 70 percent of Israelis oppose the continuation of the war, the expansion of it, and want a deal to end the war and bring the remaining hostages home. And then you have the opposition parties in Israel, which oppose it as well.
So the question is, really, who supports it? Other than Netanyahu and his family, which is not insignificant, the support is really coming from the kind of hard-line elements within the Likud, but most of all really the far-right parties that he depends upon for his government to remain in power.
How much influence do the families of the hostages have at this point?
The evidence suggests very little, frankly. They certainly have an influence within public opinion. As the months have passed, senior ministers have actually been really quite dismissive toward the families of the hostages. Publicly, they’ve been saying that securing the release of the hostages is not their priority.
Why is the Israeli military chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, against the Gaza City invasion?
The one immediate concern is simply military manpower. It would require a serious mobilization of Israel’s reserve forces and that’s becoming harder and harder to do as the war’s dragged on. There’s a real concern about just not having enough troops on the ground. There’s also a concern about the impact on Israel’s active soldiers in combat. This is the longest war Israel has ever fought, and it’s really having an impact on the soldiers on the front lines — beyond just casualties, there are suicides and concerns about morale.
The long-term concern is that basically the IDF does not want to have another long-term occupation with Gaza Strip. They don’t know if Israel could even financially or militarily manage to accomplish what they’ve done in the West Bank. That’s the long-term fear — that this could lead Israel to becoming bogged down in a long-term occupation and insurgency, which would be a major burden upon the IDF.
Is there an exit plan for all this?
Clearly this is a campaign that is going to launch with no exit plan. And generally speaking, occupations for any army are a nightmare, as the U.S. discovered in Iraq and Afghanistan.
He has said that the exit plan is that Hamas will be defeated and somehow some Arab states will take over Gaza and the Israelis can get out. But there’s no real belief that that’s a viable plan.
So that proposed concept of neighboring Arab states taking over the administration of Gaza is a fantasy?
It’s a fantasy on his terms. It’s certainly possible that Arab states could oversee Gaza if the Israeli government were willing to involve the Palestinian Authority. But Netanyahu and the government have ruled that out. There is no feasible plan that Netanyahu has presented and the military knows that.
Looking farther abroad, Germany recent decided to end its military support to Israel, citing the escalation of the conflict. Historically, what message does that send?
It’s really hugely significant. Other than the United States, Germany has been Israel’s closest ally for decades and they are their second largest arms supplier. So it’s of practical significance. But not only has Germany done this, it was a conservative German government. It just shows how German politics is shifting on this issue. It shows you that Israel has spent all its diplomatic capital, if you like.
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