Can Prop 50 Pass? Newsom Redistricting Bid Hits Crunch Time.

Democratic prospects for gaining control of the U.S. House next year may hinge on a California ballot initiative happening in 13 days. Prop 50 is Governor Gavin Newsom’s bid to counter Donald Trump’s nationwide congressional redistricting power grab by authorizing a new map for the Golden State designed to flip as many as five Republican seats. If enacted, it would neutralize the largest Trump-driven 2025 gerrymander, which Texas approved in August. But it’s tricky. California has in recent years utilized a voter-imposed nonpartisan citizens’ redistricting system that Prop 50 would temporarily suspend until the next regular round of remapping after the 2030 Census. So Democrats are in the position of asking voters to give up their power over redistricting and hand it back to the politicians in the legislature.

Newsom’s strategy from the get-go has been twofold. First, Prop 50 lets voters see and approve the proposed new map, which diminishes the impression that politicians are removing citizens from the decision-making process. And second, the “Yes on Prop 50” campaign has relentlessly made the vote a referendum on Trump and an act of self-defense against the president’s many assaults on democracy. It’s a nakedly partisan message in a strongly Democratic state and closely resembles what Newsom did to convincingly defeat a Republican-initiated effort to remove the governor from office in 2021.

Meanwhile, the coalition of Republicans and good-government types backing the “No on Prop 50” campaign is stuck with abstract arguments about redistricting that can’t compete in sheer emotional impact with the constant images of a glowering Trump that Prop 50 proponents are offering. Virtually every major California Democratic elected official has appeared in Prop 50 ads along with national Democratic figures including former president Barack Obama and U.S. representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Fueling the campaign has been a very successful fundraising effort backed by Democratic and union operatives. According to CalMatters, Yes on 50 has raised and spent $97 million so far, while No on 50 has raised and spent $42 million (much of it from Republican megadonor Charles Munger Jr., a longtime supporter of the redistricting system Prop 50 would suspend). Another problem for the “no” camp has been strategic differences between elements of the coalition. Munger and his most important ally, former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, have pursued a strictly nonpartisan message opposing gerrymanders everywhere. But as Politico reports, some Republicans worried about the funding gap and a lack of enthusiasm for the “no” cause want to lean into the Trump connection:

Republican operatives, including those working for members of Congress whose districts would be affected by new maps, said there’s a logic to taking “the good with the bad that comes with the president.” Now that Trump has again put his relationship with California back in the news, they might not have a choice.

“We don’t get to decide if the race is about the president or not,” one Republican consultant, granted anonymity to speak freely, said. “If that’s the case, embracing him definitely makes the most sense.”

This perceived need to embrace Trump in what looks like a losing cause is a bad sign for Prop 50 opponents. Proponents have their own worries, though. Polls regularly show a modest advantage for Yes on 50, and one poll from CBS News puts support at 62 percent. But most surveys show levels just below or just above 50 percent. A high undecided vote is often a danger sign for California ballot initiatives since late deciders typically lean against risky change. On the other hand, this is a special election with just one item on the ballot, so only motivated voters are likely to participate. Early voting data (virtually all of California’s votes will be cast by mail, and every registered voter received a ballot) looks good for the “yes” side, as the Sacramento Bee reports: “About 12% of both registered Democratic and Republican voters have already returned their ballots, compared to 7% of voters registered with no party preference or smaller political parties.” Since registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by nearly a two-to-one margin, anything like proportional turnout should favor Newsom & Co., unless there is a really sizable backlash among independent voters.

It’s generally agreed, however, that Latino voters could decide the fate of Prop 50, and there are concerns in the Yes on 50 camp that “fears of immigration or other federal agents showing up to polling places could depress turnout, particularly as immigration raids in California and elsewhere have ensnared U.S. citizens,” as one strategist told CalMatters. This is obviously a concern that will carry over to 2026 given the administration’s ever-expanding and increasingly aggressive immigration-enforcement crusade.

All in all, Prop 50 is likely to pass, which will boost Newsom’s national profile while quite possibly encouraging even greater GOP efforts to rig congressional maps before the final lines are drawn for the midterms. It’s a chess game in which the final moves will be made just over a year from now.