Democrats Just Lost a Key Ally in the Shutdown Fight
Even as congressional Democrats hang tough on their demands for an Obamacare-subsidy extension deal before they’ll agree to a reopening of the federal government, one of their most conspicuous allies in this standoff, the American Federation of Government Employees, has asked them to let it go. The AFGE is the largest federal-employees union, representing approximately 820,000 workers across many agencies. This is not the first time the AFGE has called for an end to the government shutdown, but it is the first time it has backed the approved GOP avenue for getting out of the mess: a “clean CR,” or a simple extension of current spending levels until more permanent appropriations measures can be worked out. Yes, the AFGE may want some concessions from Republicans, including full back pay for furloughed workers and the cancellation of Russell Vought’s wildly controversial post-shutdown layoffs. But the union is not talking about Obamacare subsidies or GOP cuts in other health-care benefits, which has been the central Democratic message all along.
It’s certainly not surprising that the AFGE is frantic to get its members paid and their jobs restored. But it’s no longer willing to subordinate those interests to the broader agenda its usual Democratic allies are advancing.
The question is whether this and other potential breaches in solidarity will have an effect on congressional Democrats, and the answer is unclear. We’re just a few days from the November 1 open-enrollment date for Obamacare policies — and a wave of sticker shock as up to 20 million Americans see the amount of money they’ll have to shell out for their inadequate health insurance more than double. On the same day, a host of nasty consequences of the shutdown will also become apparent with the termination of SNAP benefits in at least 25 states and probably more. Every payday, more and more federal employees, some furloughed and some working without pay, will hit the wall. The question is whether all that pain, most of which could be avoided or at least vastly mitigated if Democrats cave, is outweighed by the Obamacare-premium spike or the vague sense that the all-powerful Republicans are the ones really responsible for the government shutdown even though Democrats are refusing to end it.
You have to figure Democrats really are praying for an off-ramp. Ideally, Donald Trump will finally take a close look at his own pollsters’ numbers showing the Obamacare-premium issue could be deadly for Republicans in the midterms but could be a winner for Republicans if they embrace a subsidy extension. Then the 47th president may agree to an extension and briskly impose it on his Obamacare-hating congressional troops, allowing Democrats to claim victory. But other, less definitive temporary measures may be available. Republican senator Rand Paul, who has joined Democrats in voting against the clean CR because he wants deep spending cuts, has suggested a temporary reopening of the government, during which a congressional panel could negotiate an Obamacare-subsidy compromise. That approach may actually gain traction since Democrats could then say they are pausing their demands in order to pursue a deal and can let the government shut down again when the temporary stopgap bill expires if no deal appears. Indeed, the clean CR that Democrats have opposed runs out on November 15. Voting for it now hardly means going back to business as usual.
The underlying question, of course, is at what point congressional Democrats feel they will have cleansed themselves of the intraparty allegation that they’re unwilling to “fight Trump” and can be allowed to resume their previous posture of futile opposition to the GOP steamroller that controls Washington. Will any interim deal lead to renewed claims that Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries don’t have spines? They really are between a rock and a hard place, but so is all of Congress as this agonizing first year of Trump 2.0 slouches to an unhappy conclusion.