Trump has his pick of 2024 running mates: Kennedy could be among them

Former President Donald Trump holds a commanding 40 point lead in the Republican primary, making it increasingly likely that he will be the party’s nominee for the third consecutive time, despite his mounting legal challenges.

Should Trump secure the nomination, his choice of a running mate will potentially make or break his general election campaign. Given the long list of federal and state criminal charges he faces, along with his age, voters are well-aware that Trump’s running mate could very possibly be called upon to replace him in the Oval Office.

Trump’s predicament is — albeit for very different reasons — nearly identical to the dilemma facing Democrats, who are quietly questioning whether Vice President Kamala Harris is qualified to lead the country if President Joe Biden’s age, fitness or the imbroglio involving his son Hunter precludes him from seeking a second term.

Given this uncertainty, conventional wisdom dictates that Trump needs a running mate who both helps him electorally by broadening his appeal — as Mike Pence did with Evangelicals in 2016 — and can actually govern.

Two potential candidates who fit that bill are currently competing with Trump for the GOP nomination: Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R), who also served in Trump’s administration as ambassador to the United Nations. As relatively moderate candidates from minority backgrounds in a party that is increasingly seen as being dominated by White men, Scott and Haley could help the GOP shore up support among nonwhite voters, swing voters and independents, undecided Republicans and suburban women — two voting blocs where Trump is weakest.

In that same vein, both Scott and Haley offer a compelling prospective president who could step in should Trump be elected and then unable to serve, for any reason.

Importantly, Scott in particular has managed to remain in Trump’s favor without endorsing every extreme action the former president has taken, making him both palatable to both the Republican and national electorates. Trump has been complimentary of Scott, calling him, “a very good guy” who he could see “doing something with the administration.”

However, it’s not certain whether Scott or Haley, who has attacked Trump for his role in the Jan. 6 riot,  would even consider taking on Trump’s baggage as his running mate. That said, in presidential politics, people are frequently willing to bury their differences in order to secure the nation’s second highest office — as we saw with Lyndon Johnson and John F. Kennedy in 1960, and then again with George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan.

Moreover, it is highly likely that Trump would prefer his partner to parrot his unfounded claims that the 2020 election was stolen, something both Scott and Haley have denied, yet Trump is likely aware that unless he broadens his appeal beyond his base, winning a general election will be an even steeper uphill climb.

Trump has hinted that he would be open to choosing one of his current primary opponents, writing on Truth Social, “Let them debate so I can see who I MIGHT consider for Vice President!”

In terms of Trump’s current primary opponents, other than Haley or Scott, Vivek Ramaswamy — who has been both an advocate and critic of Trump on the campaign trail — would seem to be the only other logical choice. Ramaswamy is also a minority candidate and is an intriguing Trump sympathizer who was the first to say he would pardon Trump upon winning the election, but he has a relatively small national profile at this point, and no experience governing, so he would not give Trump any of the benefits a more traditional choice like Scott or Haley would provide.

Considering that Trump’s current political strategy is centered on airing his personal grievances — rather than on smart politics — it’s been suggested that he may tap a like-minded extremist such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene or Kari Lake. There is no doubt that selecting either Greene or Lake would please Trump’s base, given their fealty to Trump and embrace of far-right election denialism, although both would surely alienate moderate Republicans and Independents.

Put another way, however appealing Trump and his base may find Greene or Lake, Trump and his handlers are smart enough to know that Greene and Lake would do more harm than good.

There are other MAGA candidates who might represent a middle ground for Trump, such as Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Byron Donalds (R-Fla.). Both Stefanik, as a white woman, and Donalds, as an African American with an incredible personal story, would bring diversity and appeal to the GOP ticket, although neither would be stronger VP candidates than Haley or Scott, who have much larger national profiles and are more appealing to moderate voters.

Stefanik has risen to a top leadership position in the House after being one of the former president’s staunchest defenders during the first impeachment proceedings, and Donalds continues to reiterate false claims of a stolen election.

In light of these challenges, it is within the realm of possibility that Trump does something bold and unexpected to shake things up with a bipartisan ticket by selecting the only Democrat who has support from the Fox News crowd — Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert Kennedy Jr., nephew of President John F. Kennedy and son of former attorney general, Robert F. Kennedy, is a controversial and conspiratorial right-wing Democrat but has gained modest traction against Biden in primary polls, largely thanks to his famous name.

Though an unlikely match, Trump has praised RFK Jr. multiple times. The GOP frontrunner called RFK Jr. “smart” on Fox News and said they are both “common sense guys.” RFK Jr. has returned the pat on the back, even publicly beaming over Trump’s compliments.

RFK Jr. brings a lot to the table for Trump: a family legacy, a record of environmental activism which may endear some on the left and the same anti-institutional attitude that Trump himself embraced to win broad Republican support. Specifically, Kennedy’s strong anti-vaccine position may help Trump block some of the disaffection that comes with some of his recent political challenges.

A bipartisan ticket could also help Trump shore up support among independents and some disaffected Democrats who are upset with the party’s steady movement to the left. It would be such a bold and unlikely step to have a Trump-Kennedy ticket, that the prospect, plus Trump’s love of the unexpected makes it something that, at the very least, must be considered.

While there is no indication that Trump is considering putting Robert Kennedy Jr. on the ticket, it is one avenue he may have to distract attention from his now multiple indictments and increase the likelihood that Joe Biden is a one-term president.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”

Alexander Cohlan, a research associate at Schoen-Cooperman Research, assisted with this piece.